My hand: ♠ A J T 3 2 ♥ K Q ♦ 9 ♣ K Q 8 6 2
I open 1 spade. Partner responds 2 diamonds with the opponents passing. I get my second suit in there with 3 clubs. Partner retreats to 3 spades. I continue on to 3NT in case partner was just giving a preference with 2 spades. He bids 4 spades. West leads the 2 of hearts.
NORTH ♠ K 9 7 ♥ A T 9 ♦ J T 7 5 ♣ A 5 3 | ||
| WEST ♥ 2 | ||
| SOUTH ♠ A J T 3 2 ♥ K Q ♦ 9 ♣ K Q 8 6 2 |
| West | North | East | South |
| 1♠ | |||
| Pass | 2♦ | Pass | 3♣ |
| Pass | 3♠ | Pass | 3NT |
| Pass | 4♠ | All Pass |
I have 4 spades, 3 hearts, and 3 clubs. I can feasibly gain a spade trick by picking up the Q. I can gain a club trick or two by establishing that suit. I only have 1 or 2 losers, being a diamond and the Q of spades. They didn't lead a diamond so I can pitch it on the hearts. I've got a good feeling about making 6 here, so I wonder how we should have gotten there. At any rate...
2-9-4-K. Assuming I'm trying to make 6 I need to pitch my diamond before I lose a spade. What are the odds that I get ruffed when I try to pitch a heart? They have 8 hearts between them, so they'd need to split 6-2. Since the opponents didn't preempt and he lead the 2 of hearts I'd put the odds of that happening at none. So, lets set up the heart. Q-5-T-7. Now I need to get to board. I'm thinking the safest bet is just to do it in trump, so I go for that. 2-8-K-4.
And now, the heart. A-6-9 of diamonds-3. I now have a play for 13 tricks, by picking up the spade Q and having clubs split 3-2. Or I can cash the A of spades and then run clubs, hopefully making it so if someone ruffs in they do so with the Q. Then I can ruff my 4th club and score my 5th when they split 4-1, letting me score up 6 spades, 3 clubs, and 3 hearts.
Regardless, any play starts with the 9 of spades, so I play it in case East has to play the Q. 9-6-?. They have the Q and 5 left. I wish I knew how they carded in the trump suit. At any rate, if I was in 7 then I'd have to finesse here. Assuming I'm in 6 though, my winning scenarios with each play are:
Hop w/ A - make 6 whenever spades split 3-2 and clubs split 4-1. Make 7 whenever West has Qx and clubs split 3-2. Make 6 whenever clubs split 3-2.
Finesse - make 6 whenever East has the Q and clubs split 4-1. Make 7 whenever East has the Q and clubs split 3-2. Make 6 whenever clubs split 3-2.
So I always make 6 when clubs split 3-2. Assuming I don't care about the overtrick because we're playing IMPs and not mps so I don't need to care about the odds of making 7 instead of 6. So the difference is when clubs split 4-1. Hopping the A loses to 4-1 spades. Finessing loses to Qx or Qxx in West. 4-1 is 28%, 4-1 East is thus half that, or 14%. 3-2 is 68%. West having the Q happens in 10 of those 20 combinations, but we can exclude one of them since East has played 2 low spades already. So we're at 45% of 68% which is 30.6%.
30% remains bigger than 14%, so we should pop the A. This seems wrong, so I hope someone double checks that for me. West shows in, so I attack clubs. They both show in, so I make 6.
| NORTH ♠ K 9 7 ♥ A T 9 ♦ J T 7 5 ♣ A 5 3 | ||
| WEST ♠ 8 5 ♥ J 5 3 2 ♦ K Q 8 4 ♣ J 9 4 | EAST ♠ Q 6 4 ♥ 8 7 6 4 ♦ A 6 3 2 ♣ T 7 | |
| SOUTH ♠ A J T 3 2 ♥ K Q ♦ 9 ♣ K Q 8 6 2 |
Professor Jack disagrees with my 3NT bid. Apparently partner's 3 spade bid guaranteed 3 spades and wasn't just a preference and therefore I should have bid 4 spades. I still like 3NT since I want to get my heart stopper across.
He then disagrees with popping the A of spades. Maybe I made a math error but more likely Jack didn't care about making 6 specifically.
On the replay my hand bids 4 spades over 3 spades which gets passed out. Declarer wins the first trick and immediately finesses spades into East. East wins the Q of spades and returns a diamond. Making 5.
So the question is, can we actually find the slam? I think my 3NT bid should have shown my values were in spades, clubs, and hearts. Partner should be really happy that there's no wastage in diamonds and that we likely have hearts, clubs, and spades locked up. I guess he has no real reason to assume I have a stiff diamond but that's pretty much the only thing between us and 12 tricks I think?
Nick: 480
Jack: 450
IMPs: +1 (+22 total)
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