My hand: ♠ K 6 3 ♥ K Q T 7 6 ♦ Q 7 6 4 ♣ 2
West opens 1 club. Partner overcalls 1 diamond. East bids 2 clubs. I get in there with 2 hearts. It gets passed around to East who goes to 3 clubs. I hope to have two red suit fits but even if I don't I have a 9 card diamond suit so I'm 'legally allowed' to bid to the 3 level by The Law. I bid 3 diamonds which gets passed out. East leads the T of clubs.
North ♠ J 9 7 ♥ A 8 ♦ T 9 8 5 2 ♣ A 6 4 | ||
EAST ♣ T | ||
| SOUTH ♠ K 6 3 ♥ K Q T 7 6 ♦ Q 7 6 4 ♣ 2 |
| West | North | East | South |
| 1♣ | 1♦ | 2♣ | 2♥ |
| Pass | Pass | 3♣ | 3♦ |
| Pass | Pass | Pass |
Overcalling with no honours in your suit is a little sketchy. I have at least 2 trump losers and quite possibly 3. I have anywhere from 1 to 3 spade losers as well depending on how the suit is layed out and played. On the winner side, I have at least 3 heart tricks, probably 4 and maybe 5. I have 2 trump tricks, maybe 3. I have a club. And I can score a couple club ruffs on dummy as well, so assuming I don't get butchered in spades and diamonds I can make this.
I win the opening lead. T-2-3-A. I do not want to break spades myself and I can't cash hearts while they still have trump left so I should draw trump. How should I play the suit?
If it splits 2-2 it doesn't matter. I have just 2 losers that way.
If it splits 3-1 then playing up to the Q is good when the J is stiff or when East has the J and a 3 card suit. Floating the T is never better, I don't think.
If it splits 4-0 then I have 3 losers if West has them and 2 if East does, assuming I lead up to the Q.
Really, I can't lose to the 3 (unless they get a ruff I guess) and I can't possibly beat the A or the K or realistically get them to crash. (Maybe lead the Q from board and hope West covers from KJx or AJx?) So I can only deal with the J, which I can only do by leading up to the Q when East has it or getting it to crash on a 2-2 split. So, I lead up to the Q.
T-3-Q-K. West shifts to the 2 of spades. I randomly stick in the 7 without much thought. In retrospect this is a mistake and I should put up anything else. At any rate it gets covered by the 8. 2-7-8-K.
Now I know for sure I don't have 3 spade losers. I also know for sure I have 2 as soon as I give up the lead. My options now are:
Draw trump, immediately losing when they split 3-1 and making just in when they split 2-2.
Go after a pitch on the hearts. Cashing the three top hearts lets me get rid of a spade and if they ruff they're ruffing with a natural trump trick. (Unless diamonds split 2-2, but then I still make since I lose just 1 spade and 3 trump.) If hearts split 3-3 though, I can actually pitch both spades and lose just 3 trump tricks for up 1. Or if they split 4-2 with the J being doubleton and in the hand with only 1 trump the same happens. The only bad scenario is when hearts split 5-1 and diamonds split 2-2. Then they get 3 trump and 2 spades for down 1 when I would have made otherwise.
That doesn't seem very likely. (14.5%*40.7% = ~6%) So 6% of the time I'll lose 5 IMPs. I gain the same number of IMPs any time diamonds are 3-1 and hearts are 4-2 or better. (49.7%*84% = ~42%) I also pick up an overtrick for an extra IMP with this line and not with the exit a diamond line some chunk of the time. This is clearly right.
6-J-A-2. Is West being cute or is it really a 5-1 split? I don't think the card he plays matters (except he probably doesn't have 4 hearts I guess?) so I press on. 8-3-K-5. Huzzah! And another. Q-9-9 of spades-4. Hearts split 3-3 so I get my overtrick. I play another heart and pitch my last spade. Oddly, no one ruffs in. Huh. I exit a diamond and they both follow. What? I have the rest, making 5.
| NORTH ♠ J 9 7 ♥ A 8 ♦ T 9 8 5 2 ♣ A 6 4 | ||
| WEST ♠ Q 5 4 2 ♥ J 9 5 ♦ K J ♣ K Q J 3 | EAST ♠ A T 8 ♥ 4 3 2 ♦ A 3 ♣ T 9 8 7 5 | |
| SOUTH ♠ K 6 3 ♥ K Q T 7 6 ♦ Q 7 6 4 ♣ 2 |
On the replay the auction goes differently (North doesn't overcall, but does balance with 2 diamonds) but they end up in 3 diamonds nonetheless. The play goes differently as when West gets in with the K of diamonds he returns a club instead of a spade. Declarer ruffs and draws trump, getting the 2-2 split. East cashes the A of spades when he wins the trump. Declarer screws around before cashing his hearts so he's actually set up to go down if they don't split 3-3. Luckily for him they do. Making 4.
Nick: 150
Jack: 130
IMPs: +1 (-26 total)
6 comments:
To be fair, I agree with you here. Showing H (5 of them!) would be my priority.
Yeah, my hope really is that we can make 4 hearts on the strength of a double fit and the only way to find out if we can or not is bid hearts and hope I get supported. It's also a pretty nice suit that I'd like partner to consider leading if they end up playing something instead.
I'm disturbed that 2H is not forcing. What kind of values does overcalls show?
I set overcalling to 'aggressive' and turned on the option to force starting with a double with a good hand. A simple overcall is called at like 14 points and I'd guess is in the 8-14 range. I don't think 2H should be forcing.
The odd thing is that Captain Jack yelled at me because I wasn't strong enough for 2H and instead wanted me to cuebid. It seems to me like 2H should be the weaker of those bids.
And by 'called at' I meant 'capped at'.
I don't know, even if it is capped, somehow I feel like it should be forcing. I guess with a strong hand, you can cue bid, and double with mediumish hands, but that's kinda iffy.
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