Tuesday, April 16, 2013

FumBBL: Low TV BlackBox Team Stats

There's an interesting site that collates Blood Bowl game results from the BlackBox division on FumBBL. It lists information like winning percentage, inflicted casualties, and sustained casualties, by race and team value. I thought it would be interesting to take a look at some stats in the starting team value range to see which starting teams are really good.

My gut feeling before looking at the stats is that teams that start with a lot of core skills are going to end up on top. Norse, Dwarf, and Amazon teams in particular start with pretty much everyone equipped with block or dodge. This means they should remain standing longer, which means they should have a better chance of overwhelming their opponent. So I expect to see a big positive casualty differential form them and I expect that to also translate into more wins. On the other hand I expect expensive teams with few to no skills to lag behind. Chaos, Nurgle, Vampire. I also expect the teams I think of as being terrible to do poorly just because they're terrible. Ogre, Halfling, Goblin.

Now, some things to keep in mind... These stats are based on BlackBox games which aren't necessarily going to be typical of league games. Matches are drawn up automatically and matched by team value. This means you're able to 'twink' out a team by managing your team value to stay in a good spot. I hear horror stories on the FumBBL forums about, for example, Chaos Pact teams that just buy linemen, few or no rerolls, and stack only killing skills. These guys will keep a very low team value and get to 'prey' on actual starting teams. I haven't played against any such teams myself, but I also leveled out of the starting band pretty quickly. BlackBox teams are also free to completely stack killing stats since their opponents can't choose not to play against them like they could in the ranked division. I have played against plenty of such teams, but I tend to beat them because they're so one dimensional. They do kill some dudes, though!

Using games where the teams are between 900 and 1200 TV (a team starts at 1000 TV), which is where I'd expect most games in a fresh 8 team league like a recent turbo league I joined, the following stats come out:

TeamGames PlayedWinning PercentageCasualty Differential per 100 Games
Chaos Dwarf634955%73
Chaos Pact564551%47
Wood Elf373651%-127
Dark Elf436650%-50
High Elf222345%-65

Amazon come out far ahead of the pack in terms of winning percentage. All the really terrible teams fall way down to the bottom of all categories. They win the least, they get played the least, and they get beaten up when they do play.

I feel like there's probably a pretty high correlation between average team armour and casualty differential. Dwarves are the best, then Orcs, Chaos Dwarves, Undead, and Nurgle. It's not shown here but the team that actually inflicts the most casualties is Ogre! They just take more back than anyone except terrible Halflings. Go stunty and titchy! Amazon and Norse both have low armour but are even in casualty differential. I'm pretty sure that is because of starting with dodge and block. The other predominantly 7 armour teams (wood elves, elves, skaven, vampire, goblin, halfling, ogre, underworld are all way down on the differential chart.

I'm a little surprised that high elf is so low in winning percentage. Being below Nurgle, Chaos, and Khemri seems really bad for you. Khemri are actually winning as many games as they're losing! I guess low TV teams don't have much of a way to deal with 4 tomb guardians.

I started a Skaven team in our turbo league, and I am definitely feeling both the high win percentage and the brutal casualty differential. Skaven do have the advantage of pretty cheap linemen which is nice. If we start another one of these things I'd have to look long and hard at starting one of the other teams at the top of this chart. I've never played Amazon, for example... The great thing would be if many people took that stance and then the teams that start with tackle would obliterate them. Dwarves and Chaos Dwarves are also at the top of the winning list...

1 comment:

Orko said...

Blood Bowl teams fare very differently at different Team Values. At low TV the Amazons are very strong (and popular) while Chaos blow. However at mid and high TVs, especially in the Fumbbl black box, the most popular and destructive team is Chaos by a wide margin and their win percentages steadily climb the higher the TV. A Chaos team at 2000+ TV is a fearsome opponent and such teams typically do very well.

Another quirk of the Black Box is that because of the popularity of killer bash teams (Chaos, Chaos Dwarves, Nurgle and Orcs being the most popular) it's rare to find other team types (especially elves) at 2000+ TV because they can't keep enough of their high skill players alive in that environment, and quickly lose TV through deaths and retirements. This does at least show that Blood Bowl has a working attrition mechanic! On the other hand that attrition mechanic is perhaps too concentrated in Claw+Piling On+Mighty Blow teams.

Personally I don't mind playing killer teams, I just like more variety and it would be nice to see that happen.