Friday, April 19, 2013

FumBBL: High TV BlackBox Team Stats

Earlier this week I went over the stats for starting Blood Bowl teams in the BlackBox division on FumBBL. I wanted to look at stats as teams got higher in TV to see what sort of things would change. In particular I wanted to take a look at the TV band where our Cyanide league will likely see most of the games played: 1600-1900. New teams will start at just 1500, but if they set themselves up to have a bunch of guys near leveling I'd expect them to jump over 1600 in 1 or 2 games. Current teams cap out around 1850. So, while this range won't cover everything it should cover most while still being relatively narrow and the same width as the one in my last post.

Once again, I need to mention that these games are played in the auto-matchmaking environment on FumBBL and there is a propensity for people to try to optimize their TV or to try to kill people. I don't know that this is actually that different from our games, though. It's a scheduled league so we can't avoid killers, and we do have a couple people building some pretty scary dudes in our league. There aren't any full on claw+mighty blow+piling on guys yet that I know of, but some are getting pretty close.

Before looking at the numbers, what do I expect to see? Well, I bet Amazon, Norse, and the Dwarf teams fall off in winning percentage now that the other teams will have caught up with block/dodge/tackle of their own. I expect to see the casualty differentials become more extreme because the bashy teams will get better at bashing while the squishy teams can't really use levels to get less squishy. And with claw being taken even the tough teams will become squishy! I've been told teams like Chaos and Nurgle get much stronger as they level up, so I guess I expect them to start winning more often. I would guess the super finesse teams will end up winning most often. Skaven and Wood Elves on top, maybe? Lizardmen seem like they should be really good in this band, too.

TeamGames PlayedWinning PercentageCasualty Differential per 100 Games
Wood Elf250259%-240
Dark Elf265058%-160
High Elf80554%-202
Chaos Dwarf594852%79
Chaos Pact303748%14

Yikes! Wood Elves win a ton, but get murdered! All the finesse teams are, in fact, on the top of the winning chart. The top 6 teams are the 4 elven teams, Skaven, and Amazon. At the other end the terrible teams seem to have gotten even worse. Halflings really didn't play many games, and they didn't win very many of those! Halflings continue to have the worst casualty differential as well.

Just looking at the biggest movers between the two charts we have Halflings and Goblins which each lost more than 10% of the winning percentages. Vampires, Chaos, Nurgle, and the 4 elf teams were the biggest gainers. Orcs, Ogres, Norse, Undead, Amazon, and Dwarfs were the biggest non-stunty losers. Lizardmen actually lost a fair bit, which surprises me a little. I'd have thought getting skills on saurii would help, but I guess the enemies getting claw probably hurts them a lot.

Looking at casualties inflicted only 2 teams got worse at hurting people by leveling. Elves and High Elves were more damaging at low levels than at high levels. This seems odd, but I guess is probably explained by high level elves simply refusing to throw many punches. When your linemen start getting dodge and fend it gets pretty easy to run away and then you're less likely to need to fight back. Chaos gain nearly 2 full casualties per game! Leveling up causes them to more than double their casualties inflicted per game. I am not surprised at all. Nurgle is the next biggest gainer, which also doesn't surprise me. Next are Underworld and Chaos Dwarves as the only other teams to gain more than 1 casualty per game. I was initially surprised by Underworld, but they do have 3 guys with normal access to strength and mutation skills. So all 4 of the big gaining teams can fairly trivially build the claw+mighty blow+piling on machine.

Looking at casualties sustained is a depressing picture for the lifespan of high level players. Only two teams take fewer than 1 extra casualty per game than they did at low levels. Those two are Chaos and Nurgle. I guess they just inflict so much extra damage that they take less punishment back. Goblins lead the way in newfound squishiness, with almost 2 extra casualties per game. Underworld, Halflings, Skaven, and Lizardmen make out the rest of the newly squishy dudes.

In the casualty differential difference it comes as no surprise that the team that inflicted the most extra casualties and sustained the fewest extra casualties is dominating the charts. Chaos, Nurgle, and Chaos Dwarves are actually the only teams to make gains in this category. Every other team lost ground, with most teams losing a ton of ground. Goblins, Halflings, Vampires, and the 4 elves were the biggest losers.

It seems like, in general, you either want to have 4 agility or be able to mutate. If you have 4 agility then you're looking to win games. If you can mutate you're looking to wipe the other team off the board. Wiping people out seems like a fine winning plan too, with both Chaos and Nurgle doing better at winning at high TV compared to low TV. Chaos actually win a fair bit. They're below the finesse teams, but not by a ton. Amazons didn't fall off nearly as much as I thought they might which really makes me want to try them out. I'm very surprised that Orcs fell to only winning 41% of the time. I guess when so many people have claw it takes away from the Orc gameplan? But Dwarves are still at 48% wins, so it can't be that alone. Maybe the guard spam Dwarf plan is actually good enough to contain a kill focused Chaos/Nurgle team?

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