Monday, February 28, 2011

10-Man Heroic Chimaeron Timings

I've poured over a recent log of our first 5 heroic Chimaeron pulls with an eye on getting a feel for the proper timing in terms of tank rotations. I'd read a few different ways that it could be done and wanted to see if I could work out exactly the order things happen on the fight to work out the pros and cons of each rotation along with how cooldowns could be lined up. It turns out everything happens in a very exact, precise order, so this should be very possible. In particular, the fight can be broken into 30 second chunks each of which follows this exact rotation (with one exception):

Melee Swing -> Melee Swing + Break Application -> Double Attack -> Caustic Slime x2 -> Melee Swing -> Caustic Slime x2 -> Melee Swing + Break Application -> Caustic Slime x2 -> Massacre -> (Feud, maybe)

The exception mentioned above is the very first 30 second chunk. The melee attacks are sped up at the start, likely because of a combination of two reasons. An attack speed debuff isn't applied before the pull, and they changed the encounter a little in a hotfix which forced Chimaeron to reset his swing timer after a massacre. As such, the first rotation has time for an extra melee swing before the massacre, and that swing will always be a double attack. Also, the first rotation can't end in a feud. The first rotation, therefore, is:

Melee Swing -> Melee Swing + Break Application -> Double Attack -> Melee Swing -> Caustic Slime x2 -> Melee Swing + Break Application -> Caustic Slime x2 -> Double Attack -> Caustic Slime x2 -> Massacre

Feud phases work the same way as a normal phase on heroic mode with the exact same rotation except there's no invincible bot up and you're guaranteed to not get back-to-back feuds. An interesting thing that I didn't realize until I looked at the log is Chimaeron actually continues to spew out two Caustic Slimes during the feud phase, so the healing needed is double what I thought it was. Also of note, there's only ever one double attack during the feud. (He does cast it a second time at the end which is certainly scary but it gets cut off by the ending massacre. You may need to maintain your attack speed debuff to make this be true but you better do that anyway.)

So, how do we tank this? When it comes right down to it there are 4 different levels of melee attacks in the fight and 5 different levels of the break debuff and the trick is managing which of the attacks gets eaten by who has which level of debuff. On normal this rotation is pretty trivial since there's only 2 levels of melee attacks:

  • Normal auto-attack which can't kill anyone at more than 10k health. Anyone with a taunt and a healer can tank this regardless of break stacks.
  • Double attack. From the logs it looks like I get hit for about 140k from a base swing, with some variance. (140k is the high end.) You need to remain above 10k from the first swing to live through the second one with the bot buff, so if I have 150k health I'm fine. With 1 stack of break I need 185k health. With 2 stacks I need 220k health which I hope can be seen as clearly right out. I can cool-down that if I need to, but by default I'm dead if I don't avoid one of the swings.
The solution, of course, is to have one 'tank' eat the auto-attacks (which means they get all the break stacks) and one actual tank taunt in and eat the double attacks. As long as they get healed to full before each double attack (you have about 14 seconds to heal up from the massacre) you can't lose a tank. (Well, assuming the 'tank' gets healed over 10k every 4.8 seconds anyway.)

On heroic things get a lot trickier. You have two new classes of attacks to look at:

  • No-bot auto-attack. These hit for 140k, and there are 4 of them to eat. The second one applies a break debuff, so if you're planning on having one tank eat them all you'll be taking a couple of 175k swings as well.
  • No-bot double attack. Even without a break stack you have 280k potential incoming damage so you need to use at least one cool-down here. If you have one break (likely since it was applied not 5 seconds earlier) you have 350k incoming. 2 stacks is 420k. Yikes!
Break lasts a full minute and you could get a feud phase 30 seconds after the last one. This means counting on the same person to accumulate breaks during a feud phase is sketchy to say the least. Doing so could mean eating a no-bot double attack with 3 breaks for a whopping 490k incoming damage. I understand some raids deal with this by rotating Ardent Defender and Guardian Spirit but we have neither a prot paladin nor a holy priest among our main specs. It is possible to heal two tanks up during feud and have one eat the breaks and the other eat the double attacks but this wastes a lot of healer mana if you get any avoids at all. One tank sucking up a break and popping a cooldown rates to save healer mana (the ending massacre wipes out any extra healing above and beyond what is needed).

The rotation we were working with last time and will probably keep going forward is to use a plate DPSer (ret paladin in our case) as the 'main tank'. He eats all the normal auto-attacks and therefore also eats all the non-feud breaks. 'Off-tank 1' (OT1) taunts in to eat all the normal double attacks until the first feud. These are all 0-break botted double attacks so there's no need to use any cooldowns of any kind. During the first feud he takes all 5 hits. This requires using at least a powerful cooldown for the double attack since it's 350k incoming damage and probably using a cooldown for the other hits too if possible. (As a blood Death Knight I can use bone armour for the entire phase for a 20% reduction and icebound fortitude for the double attack for an extra 50% reduction which actually lasts 18 seconds so will hit a couple normal swings too.) Then once the feud phase is over OT1 does nothing else since he has a 2-break. His job is completely replaced by a second tank filling the exact same role. This new tank (OT2) will taunt in for normal double attacks and will tank the second feud phase in its entirety. Note that even if the feud phases come as fast as they can OT2 will be filling the off-tank role for at least a minute and therefore OT1 will have dropped his break stack by the time the second feud has ended. This means he can easily step in and tank double attacks after the second feud phase, restarting the cycle.

The only potential problem here is OT1 may have to tank a feud phase 2 minutes after he last tanked one. Icebound fortitude has a 3 minute cooldown and therefore won't be up. I'll need to use vampiric blood, dancing rune weapon, and the hoping defense to survive. (Possibly get an external cooldown from someone else as well.) I should still have bones on the bone armor, so I should have 20% damage reduction and 15% more health. So I'll be at 222k max health and prevent 20% of the incoming 350k damage. So I'm dead by 58k. Oddly enough, if I got hit by the last melee attack I should have a large enough blood shield to live through this! Probably I should also pop my darkmoon faire trinket for an extra 10k health to make sure the blood shield is good enough...


You can also use the same rotation with a third tank instead of a plate DPSer but this doesn't seem to have a lot of merit. The main tank just screws around with a 4-break stack the whole fight so he's useless at stepping in and doing anything else. Possibly you could run it with no set main tank, and have the old feud tank become the new main tank. This would let you refresh the cooldowns on 3 different tanks for the feud phases which could be important, but would cost you a DPSer during the final burn phase. It does gain you a third speed bump in the burn phase, too, which may be worthwhile. I'll find out when we actually make it to phase 3.

I've also heard it done with 2 tanks. In this case you end up just holding on to the boss after a feud phase until the other tank's break stack drops, which often entails eating normal 3-break double attacks which is pretty sketchy. The guy who claimed to do it this way was the one with the Ardent Defender/Guardian Spirit rotation which makes me think it's doable with the right composition but that it's not worth looking into further for my purposes. We have a ret paladin and a DPS DK who can fill the 'main tank' role here without losing all that much damage in the process.

Tuesday, February 22, 2011

10-Man Heroic Raid Difficulty

We managed to take Nef down last night which opens up all hard modes. We also killed Halfus last week, but that still leaves 11 potential hard modes to try. Where to start? Loot-wise you probably want to hit the bosses with tier tokens, weapons, and trinkets first since those things tend to be in highest demand, or provide the biggest boost, or both. Tier tokens drop from Halfus, Magmaw, Meloriak, Cho'gall, Nefarian, and Al'Akir.

Weapons by use:
Caster dagger - Valiona
Caster dagger - Magmaw
Caster sword - Conclave of Wind
Caster mace - Cho'gall
Caster mace - Nef
Rogue dagger - Omnotron
Rogue sword - Valiona
Rogue dagger - Cho'gall
Rogue axe - Nef
Tanking 1-sword - Maloriak
Melee 1-sword - Conclave of Wind
Melee 1-sword - Magmaw
Melee 2-axe - Cho'gall
Melee 2-mace - Magmaw
Melee 2-sword - Nef
Feral staff - Halfus
Bow - Atramedes
Bow - Valiona

Trinkets:

Caster - Valiona
Caster - Atramedes
Caster - Cho'gall
Caster - Council
Healer - Maloriak
Melee - Chimaeron
Melee - Council
Hunter - Halfus
Hunter - Nef
Tanking - Magmaw
Tanking - Valiona

We can also look at the success or lack thereof from other guilds. I went to Guildox today and pulled out kill stats and average ilvl information for each boss. (Average ilvl is based on both 10 and 25 kills, so not the most useful information.)

Boss10-man Guild Kills25-man Guild KillsAverage ilvl
Halfus27961636352.5
Chimaeron13641104352.7
Maloriak643623354.1
Atramedes522483354.0
Conclave of Wind189429354.5
Omnotron133266355.5
Al'Akir8615358.8
Magmaw69345355.3
Ascendant Council556357.8
Nefarian344359.1
Valiona1121358.1
Sinestra026358.0
Cho'gall043359.8

I guess the Sinestra number shouldn't be a surprise since no one has even killed Cho'gall yet. The boss with all the drops I want (weapon, trinket, and tier piece from one boss!) has only been killed by 69 10-man guilds which is a shame, though the average ilvl is much lower than the end bosses so he may be doable. It certainly seems like Chimaeron is the second most popular heroic to kill though he drops practically nothing in super demand by my arbitrary criteria.

Monday, February 21, 2011

Games Played in Niagara

I spent pretty much three and a half full days playing board games and almost exclusively played new games all weekend. A list of the new games I played:

Age of Empires III: Age of Discovery
Anomia (twice)
Kakerlakensalat
Cyclades
Lifeboats
Mercator (twice)
Magical Athlete
Time's Up: Title Recall
Luna (twice) (Had nothing to do with the game, but I got the song La Luna stuck in my head after playing this.)
Conquest of Planet Earth
Dungeons and Dragons: Wrath of Ashardalon (twice)
Factory Fun (five times)
K2
Niagara
Florenza
Nexus Ops

And old ones:

7 Wonders
Macao (twice)
Le Havre
Power Grid

On top of that I watched quite a few games being played with Antiquity in particular looking like a game I was interested in playing. (And a bunch of Battlestar Galactica games. Watching the game might be even more entertaining than playing in it!)

Tangentially related at best, I got the song La Luna stuck in my head while I was playing the game. Here it is, so it can be stuck in your head too.

Sunday, February 20, 2011

Bridge Match 1 - Board 132

Board 132 – Dealer West – All Vul

My hand: A J T 4 2 J T 8 A 8 6 4 5

West opens 1 club. East responds 1 heart. I double. West bids 1NT, partner bids 2 spades, and East bids 3 clubs. I bid 3 spades which gets passed out. East leads the 3 of clubs.


NORTH
9 8 7 6
Q 9
Q J T
K J 9 7



EAST
3

SOUTH
A J T 4 2
J T 8
A 8 6 4
5


West North East South
1 Pass 1 Double1
1NT 2 3 3
Pass Pass Pass
14-5 Spades, 4 Diamonds?

Interesting alert of my double. I mean, it's what I have almost every time I double but I'd have phrased it as takeout or not alerted it at all.

At any rate, I have 3 spades, 1 club, and 1 diamond. I can set up another 2 diamonds and a heart and a spade with various plays. I have 1 or 2 spade losers, 2 heart losers, 1 club loser, and maybe a diamond loser. If I'm going to make I need to pick up spades for 1 loser and diamonds for no losers.

The club. 3-5-A-7. West shifts to a heart. 2-9-A-8. East shifts to a diamond. I can't see a reason to hop with the A. 7-4-K-Q. Oh well. West cashes the K of hearts. K-Q-3-T. Then a club. 4-K-8-6 of diamonds.

Time to draw trump. If they split 2-2 it doesn't matter how I play the suit but A and out is safest. If East has 3 then finessing is right no matter how the honours split. If West has 3 then finessing can't hurt or help. I should finesse. 9-Q-A-5. Guess I only have 1 spade loser. Down 1.


NORTH
9 8 7 6
Q 9
Q J T
K J 9 7

WEST
K 5 3
K 4 2
K 3 2
A T 4 2

EAST
Q
A 7 6 5 3
9 7 5
Q 8 6 3

SOUTH
A J T 4 2
J T 8
A 8 6 4
5


Professor Jack agrees with me all the way!


At the other table my hand starts with 1 spade but still end up in 3 spades. Declarer finds a way to avoid the diamond loser. Unfortunately for him he gets rid of the diamond loser by just throwing away a club trick. Down 1.

Nick: -100
Jack: -100
IMPs: 0 (-43 total)

Saturday, February 19, 2011

Bridge Match 1 - Board 131

Board 131 – Dealer South – EW Vul

My hand: 9 6 5 T 7 5 K 9 8 3 Q 5 3

West opens 1 club in 2nd seat. East responds 1 diamond. I stay silent and they end up signing off in 5 hearts and then wandering to 6 hearts anyway. Intriguing. Partner leads the A of clubs.

NORTH
A


EAST
Q T
A Q 8 3
A Q T 7 4
J 4

SOUTH
9 6 5
T 7 5
K 9 8 3
Q 5 3


West North East South
Pass
1Pass 1 Pass
1Pass 41 Pass
42Pass 4NT3 Pass
54Pass 5 Pass
6Pass Pass Pass
1Control in Diamonds for Hearts
2Control in Spades for Hearts
3Ace Asking for Hearts
4One Ace

A-4-3-7. T-J-Q-K. Declarer plays a third club. 6-2-Q of hearts-5. And now he draws trump. 3-5-K-4. And now a spade. 4-3-T-5. And now a diamond! A-3-5-2. Q-K-6 of hearts-6. Declarer switches to a club. 8-9-A of hearts-6 of spades. He draws another trump. 8-7-9-2. J-7 of spades-4 of diamonds-T. Man, that was risky of him. If partner had the T of hearts he'd have been down the reckless way he played. He is up now, though.


NORTH
8 7 3 2
4 2
J 6 2
A T 9 2

WEST
A K J 4
K J 9 6
5
K 8 7 6

EAST
Q T
A Q 8 3
A Q T 7 4
J 4

SOUTH
9 6 5
T 7 5
K 9 8 3
Q 5 3


Professor Jack disagrees with my club signal. He wants me to signal with the 5 to show the Q. I only want to show the K with an encouraging signal, so I want to play small. He then disagrees with my diamond signal, where I showed odd instead of even. I didn't see any point in signalling correct count either. I'm lying to declarer more than partner here.


On the replay the auction goes the same up until the very end, which West fails to bump the bid to 6 hearts. North doesn't cash his A of clubs and they end up holding them to 5.

Nick: -1430
Jack: -650
IMPs: -13 (-43 total)

Friday, February 18, 2011

Bridge Match 1 - Board 130

Board 130 – Dealer East – NS Vul

My hand: K J A T 9 7 3 T 9 7 5 4 3

East opens 1 heart. This looks like a terrible unusual NT to me! West jumps to 4 hearts (looks familiar) but East continues with 4NT. West shows 1 ace and East goes to 6 hearts which gets passed out. I think we will set this with my A of diamonds and K of hearts.

I'm on lead. The only way it can be wrong to cash my A is if they're void, and it sets up a pitch, and partner has a trick they can pitch away. Seems unlikely.

WEST
A 9 8 5 4 3
T 6 5
K Q J
6



SOUTH

K J
A T 9 7 3
T 9 7 5 4 3


West North East South
1 2NT1
4 Pass 4NT2 Pass
53 Pass 6 All Pass
1Unusual
2Ace Asking for Hearts
3One Ace

A-J-2-8 of hearts. Ok, two of the bad conditions are true. How is number 3? Declarer cashes the A of clubs. A-3-6-2. Then he shifts to a spade. When can ruffing win? Well, it wins when partner has Qx of hearts. It wins when I can give partner a club ruff too I guess, which again requires the Q or maybe the 9. It loses when declarer has a spade loser which I ruff instead of letting him lose it. But with 2 free pitches sitting on board that can't be possible. I guess I should ruff.

2-J of hearts-3-6. I return the T of clubs. T-5 of hearts-Q-8. Declarer plays a heart and finesses into me. T-2-4-K. I guess that's another win for the ruff, eh? I return another club. 4-6 of hearts-K-J. Declarer is now up. Down 1.


NORTH
Q J 6
9 2
8 6 5 4 2
K Q 2

WEST
A 9 8 5 4 3
T 6 5
K Q J
6

EAST
K T 7 2
A Q 8 7 4 3

A J 8

SOUTH

K J
A T 9 7 3
T 9 7 5 4 3


Professor Jack disagrees with my club signal. Pretty sure declarer makes if I actually signal proper count here, so I'm happy he disagrees. He next disagrees with ruffing. Another happy occurrence for me I guess!


On the replay the auction is different. My hand bids 2 clubs instead of 2NT. This builds a cue-bidding auction that culminates in 6 hearts. My hand leads a club and not the A of diamonds. Declarer wins and draws two rounds of trump, ending in my seat's hand. My seat finally tries to cash the A of diamonds, setting up two tricks for declarer. Declarer using the two pitches to clear out his spades, and then he ruffs a spade to set up 3 more tricks on which to pitch his clubs. Making 6. Bang!

Nick: 50
Jack: -980
IMPs: +14 (-30 total)

Thursday, February 17, 2011

Bridge Match 1 - Board 129

Board 129 – Dealer North – No Vul

My hand: J T 9 8 7 4 A 9 3 Q 4 A 7

Partner opens 1 hearts and East jumps to 2NT showing the minors. I bid 4 hearts which gets passed out. East leads the 5 of clubs.


NORTH
Q 5
Q J T 8 4 2
K 2
K T 2


EAST
5

SOUTH
J T 9 8 7 4
A 9 3
Q 4
A 7


West North East South
1 2NT1 4
Pass Pass Pass
1Unusual

I have 2 clubs and 5 hearts. I can easily set up a diamond and a lot of spades. Unfortunately I have 4 losers. 2 spades and a diamond for sure, and maybe the K of hearts. They're all top tricks except the heart which I can only avoid by finessing for it or dropping it. East has 10 cards in the minors so it's almost inconceivable that West could have a stiff K. I can play a round of spades pretty safely first to find out. I hope the club. 5-A-8-2. I fire out a spade. 4-K-Q-3 of clubs.

Well now. West does have one heart. It's still 1 in 4 that he has the king though, so I should still finesse. He returned a diamond, anyway. 9-K-A-4. East plays another club which I win in hand. 4-7-J-K.

I lead a trump and East covers. Q-K-A-7. Now I just need to manage my entries and I'm good. Actually, I just need to ruff the club and I'm up. So I play a heart to the J, ruff the club back, cash the high diamond and concede a spade. Making 4.


NORTH
Q 5
Q J T 8 4 2
K 2
K T 2

WEST
A K 6 3 2
7 5
9 8 6 5
J 8

EAST

K 6
A J T 7 3
Q 9 6 5 4 3

SOUTH
J T 9 8 7 4
A 9 3
Q 4
A 7


Professor Jack disagrees with ducking the spade. He wants me to play a club instead, probably to ruff a club or maybe to take the heart finesse right away. In retrospect while I gained information by playing the spade it wasn't information I was willing to act on (I was going to finesse even with hearts 1-3) so it was probably wrong.


On the replay the auction and lead are identical. Declarer wins the opening lead in hand and finesses hearts. He doesn't finesse in a way he can repeat though, so he has to play a diamond to try to build another hand entry. It fails. Declarer is forced to hope for a 2-2 heart split and luckily for him it works. Also making 4, but I feel screwed.

Nick: 420
Jack: 420
IMPs: 0 (-44 total)

Wednesday, February 16, 2011

Niagara Boardgaming Weekend

I've taken two days off work and am heading to lovely Niagara Falls for the long weekend. Apparently the temperature is going to spike up near 10 degrees in the middle of February so it should be really nice. And I will hopefully spend the entire time playing board games! Woo!

I don't have a lot of details about what actually goes on. I think it's just a lot of open gaming with no real structure but it should be fun. I certainly have had a board game void recently and need it filled with any and all games. I'm hoping to get a game of Queen's Gambit in and hope to be acquiring a copy of A Brief History of the World which looks pretty great. I'm also taking Dungeon Lords, Factory Manager, and To Court the King by request of Duncan and Sara (who I'm driving down with).

I encourage anyone who may be in the area to show up and play crazy amounts of board games on the weekend at least!

Tuesday, February 15, 2011

Bridge Match 1 - Board 128

Board 128 – Dealer West – EW Vul

My hand: A J 7 3 K Q J 6 5 T 9 8 T

Partner opens 1 club and East doubles. I redouble. West bids 1 diamond and partner jumps to 3 clubs. I bid 3 hearts and partner goes to 3NT which gets passed out. East leads the A of diamonds.


NORTH
K T 4
A T
5 2
K Q J 8 3 2



EAST
A

SOUTH
A J 7 3
K Q J 6 5
T 9 8
T


West North East South
Pass 1 Double Redouble1
1 3 Pass 3
Pass 3NT All Pass
110+ Points

Ok, so partner has a bare minimum and no diamond stopper. What was 3 clubs? Why bid 3NT with absolutely no stopper? I defended Jack on the weekend when Sky was saying he thinks Jack is pretty atrocious after 1 spade doubled was for penalty. I don't know if we can keep talking, Jack.

At any rate, I have 5 heart tricks and 2 spade tricks after I lose all the diamonds and maybe the A of clubs. Diamonds split 4-4 and they immediately cash the club A so I'm down 1.


NORTH
K T 4
A T
5 2
K Q J 8 3 2

WEST
Q 8
7 4 3
J 7 4 3
9 7 6 4

EAST
9 6 5 2
9 8 2
A K Q 6
A 5

SOUTH
A J 7 3
K Q J 6 5
T 9 8
T


Professor Jack disagrees with my redouble. He'd rather I just bid hearts myself. Then he wants me to pass 3 clubs. I guess it was preemptive? His comment was "Jack would have bid pass himself but he seriously considered your call and can live with it."


At the other table my hand bids 1 heart which somehow makes West shut up. North still jumps to 3 clubs which really removes any chance that it's preemptive. My seat bids the 3NT. West finds a diamond lead so they take 4 tricks off the top. He then shifts to a spade so they'd make if declarer hadn't pitched his spade away. Instead they take just 3 spades and 5 hearts and concede a club on the end for a push board.

Nick: -50
Jack: -50
IMPs: 0 (-44 total)

Monday, February 14, 2011

Bridge Match 1 - Board 127

Board 127 – Dealer South – NS Vul

My hand: A T 4 5 3 A J 5 K Q J 8 5

I open 1NT. West interferes with 2 clubs and partner jumps to 4 hearts. Are systems on over 2 clubs? If they are, would Texas even be on? Am I even playing Texas? I don't think so, so I pass. East leads the T of clubs.


NORTH
Q 9 7
A J 9 8 4
Q 9 6 2
6



EAST
T

SOUTH
A T 4
5 3
A J 5
K Q J 8 5


West North East South
1NT
24 All Pass

I have 1 diamond, 3 heart, and 1 spade. That's a start... I will set up 2 clubs trivially after this lead. A diamond can be brute forced as well. I might get a spade if the K is onside. Maybe if West has KT or QT I can cut out a heart loser?

Unfortunately West has 6 clubs so I'm pretty sure I'm going to get something ruffed here. Unless I duck! I can ruffing finesse later to pick up the A. Yeah! T-5-9-6. West shifts to a spade. This gets me my spade trick! 2-4-5-7.

At this point I think I just want to draw trump and suck up my losers. A-7-3-6. 4-2-5-T. I guess I might actually have 3 heart losers, eh? West returns a spade. J-Q-K-A. Unfortunately I have no way to hand to draw to draw 2 trump at once. I think I should just play for down 1 anyway. I play the K of clubs. K-4-9 of spades-Q of hearts. And now I realize I'm screwed since I pitched the spade. Oh well. East returns a diamond. I need to brute force a second entry to board now, so I duck. 3-5-7-9. I draw out the last trump. 9-4 of diamonds-8 of clubs-K. West returns the A of clubs, so I can ruff, play up to the A of diamonds and claim. Down 1.



NORTH
Q 9 7
A J 9 8 4
Q 9 6 2
6

WEST
J 5 3
K T 6
7
A 9 7 4 3 2

EAST
K 8 6 2
Q 7 2
K T 8 4 3
T

SOUTH
A T 4
5 3
A J 5
K Q J 8 5


Professor Jack wants me to cover the club lead. I think that would have been a pretty big mistake. I strongly disagree with 4 hearts, though. We could have 24 points and a 7 card fit. Come on Jack. Invites are legal! So is double!


On the replay the auction goes the same. Declarer covers the club lead. West returns a club which gets ruffed. But then East gives him extra entries to his hand by playing spades twice which lets him draw trump for 1 loser. Making 4.

Nick: -100
Jack: 620
IMPs: -12 (-44 total)

Sunday, February 13, 2011

Bridge Match 1 - Board 126

Board 126 – Dealer East – No Vul

My hand: 9 9 4 3 K J T 7 4 T 9 8 4

East opens 1 spade. West jumps to 4 spades which gets passed out. I lead the 9 of spades.

WEST
T 8 7 5 2
A 8 6
Q 8 3
A Q



SOUTH
9
9 4 3
K J T 7 4
T 9 8 4


West North East South
1 Pass
4 Pass Pass Pass

9-2-A-3. Partner shifts to a diamond. 6-5-K-3. I guess I should return a diamond in case partner has the A. J-8-2-A. Declarer plays a heart. 2-3-A-7. He cashes a club. A-2-5 of hearts-4. So partner had 7 clubs and didn't act. Huh.

Now a heart back. 6-T-J-4. A diamond. 9-4-Q-7 of clubs. So partner had a stiff A of spades? He must have been 1-3-2-7? A heart back. 8-Q-K-9. It turns out declarer is just up. I wonder if I can make Jack claim? He makes 5.


NORTH
A
Q T 7
6 2
K J 7 6 5 3 2

WEST
T 8 7 5 2
A 8 6
Q 8 3
A Q

EAST
K Q J 6 4 3
K J 5 2
A 9 5

SOUTH
9
9 4 3
K J T 7 4
T 9 8 4


Professor Jack disagrees with my opening lead. He wants me to lead a club, not a spade. He then complains that I signaled incorrectly in clubs. Declarer showed out, Jack. You know my count. I should signal completely randomly here.


On the replay the auction is the same. My hand leads the T of clubs. Declarer still has 2 guaranteed losers and still picks up the Q of hearts. Making 5.

Nick: -450
Jack: -450
IMPs: 0 (-32 total)

Saturday, February 12, 2011

Bridge Match 1 - Board 125

Board 125 – Dealer North – All Vul

My hand: J 8 3 J T 7 2 K 9 K 9 8 5

East opens 1NT in 2nd chair. You don't interfere with 4-4-3-2 hands, so I pass as does everyone else.

I lead the 5 of clubs.

WEST
A 5
9 8 6 3
J 6 5 4
J T 7



SOUTH
J 8 3
J T 7 2
K 9
K 9 8 5


West North East South
Pass 1NT All Pass

5-T-A-6. Partner fires back a club. 2-3-? I should pop the K when partner has the Q left, but if he started with AQx he would have returned the Q I would think. How about AQxx? And could he have Ax? With Ax I need to duck. With Axx it doesn't matter. And with AQx or AQxx I need to win. I don't think he has the Q. 2-3-8-J.

Declarer shifts to hearts. 3-Q-A-2. K-7-6-2 of diamonds. Sorry declarer! He throws me in with a heart. 4-J-8-2 of spades. Partner has pitched low cards in every suit. I cash the K of clubs and declarer shows out, so partner did have the Q. Why not return that for me? Boo! I cash my heart and play a club to partner. He returns a spade to my J and dummy's A. I get my K of diamonds but nothing else. They're just in.


NORTH
Q T 7 6 2
Q
8 7 2
A Q 4 2

WEST
A 5
9 8 6 3
J 6 5 4
J T 7

EAST
K 9 4
A K 5 4
A Q T 3
6 3

SOUTH
J 8 3
J T 7 2
K 9
K 9 8 5


Professor Jack disagrees with ducking the club. It only hurts when partner underled his Q which he should do unless I lead the 5 from 9853 or a shorter suit. Come on, partner. Have more faith in me than that!

He then wants me to signal an even number of hearts. Yeah, lets tell declarer about the 4-1 split before he screws up and sets up my hearts. That seems wise. (Why was he 'setting up' hearts and not diamonds anyway?)


On the replay they also play 1NT. My hand leads the 5 of clubs, North again returns the 2 of clubs but my hand wins it. After clearing clubs they work on spades, but declarer wisely decides to set up diamonds for a push.

Nick: -90
Jack: -90
IMPs: 0 (-32 total)

Friday, February 11, 2011

Mortal Strike in PvE

One of the people in our raid core this expansion is adamant that Blizzard designs 10-man fights to use at most 2 tanks and at most 3 healers. He gets really mad when we try to do things with 3 tanks or 4 healers because that's "not intended" and there has to be a normal way to get things done. I don't have any faith that Blizzard knows a thing about balancing 10-man raids (Sarth+3 anyone?) so especially right at the start of a new tier of content I think trying lots of things makes sense even if it's "not intended".

We pulled our first hard mode of the expansion last night and I made the comment that I didn't think 2 tanks was even remotely feasible due to the fight mechanics, which got another snippy comment about Blizzard's intentions. So, it's time to justify to myself with math why I don't think 2 tanks is feasible from a numbers point of view let alone a logistical point of view. The primary reason I feel this way is a healing taken debuff applied to one of the tanks, so we need to assess what this debuff essentially does.

If a tank isn't taking very much damage (Kurinaxx, 2nd boss in BM, or the dogs in ICC as examples) or the healers can trivially overheal them then a mortal strike debuff doesn't really do anything. It turns the abundance of overhealing into actual healing and reduces HPS numbers across the board without actually impacting how the fight works out. The healers just do their thing and everything is fine. The only real concern here is if the buff ever stacks to 100% healing reduction, because then the tank is just going to die.

If the damage is high enough that the tank is actually in danger of dying normally from spikes (Broodlord in BWL) or if healer mana or throughput is a real concern then things are different. In the spiking out case the tank's 'time to full' goes up which makes it more likely he gets exploded, but if you have enough extra healing you can just brute force this out.

In the mana or throughput case you can model the mortal strike debuff as proportionally increasing the tank's maximum health pool and incoming damage taken. (A lot like comparing a stamina stacking tank to a block stacking tank, actually.) For a while this doesn't hurt because the healers won't have any trouble keeping the tank alive, but eventually the amount of 'damage' they have to heal gets absurdly high.

The time for the tank to go from full to dead remains the same since both their maximum health and their incoming damage remain proportionally the same, but the amount of incoming damage just keeps going up and up until the healers either run out of mana or simply become unable to deal with the amount of damage. So if we know how much the healers can handle we can work out how high a mortal strike proportion we can live with. To know these things we have to know how much damage the fight is putting out and what the healers can deal with both short term and long term.

The fight I'm interested in is heroic Halfus in Bastion of Twilight. First let's look at the absurd case of a single tank and see where we become unsustainable, but to do that we need to take a look at how much damage is being done by each of the parts of the fight. I tanked each part of the fight that we released last night, so all numbers used here will be for me (a stamina tank, not a block tank).


Thursday, February 10, 2011

Bridge Match 1 - Board 124

Board 124 – Dealer West – NS Vul

My hand: Q 8 8 4 2 A Q 9 5 A J 8 7

East opens 1 club in 3rd chair. I have no bid. West responds 1 heart and East bids 1 spade. I could double to ask for a diamond lead and show some values. Will this help declarer more than partner? I doubt it. West bids 1NT which gets passed to me. My hand is way too balanced to bid again.

Partner leads the 2 of diamonds.


NORTH
2



EAST
A K T 5
A J 6
8 4 3
Q 4 2

SOUTH
Q 8
8 4 2
A Q 9 5
A J 8 7


West North East South
Pass Pass 1 Pass
1 Pass 1 Double1
1NT Pass Pass Pass
1Penalty

2-3-A-6. I return a diamond. 5-J-K-4. Partner shifts to the T of clubs. T-2-8-K. If partner gets in again and plays another club I have 5 tricks. Declarer plays a heart. 5-3-A-2. And another. J-4-7-9. Unlucky. 6-8-K-T. I guess declarer has 7 tricks. It turns out partner only had 3 diamonds so I don't have an entry to his hand and am endplayed into giving declarer his Q of clubs. Making 2.


NORTH
J 7 4 3
T 9 3
K 7 2
T 9 6

WEST
9 6 2
K Q 7 5
J T 6
K 5 3

EAST
A K T 5
A J 6
8 4 3
Q 4 2

SOUTH
Q 8
8 4 2
A Q 9 5
A J 8 7


Professor Jack disagrees with my double since apparently it was for penalty. I don't know how that can possibly make sense. Does anyone else think that was penalty?

He then disagrees with ducking the club lead. I guess he doesn't think partner can have the K of clubs or another entry?


On the replay my hand shuts up. East bids 2 hearts over 1NT. West bids 2 spades which gets passed out. They end up taking 9 tricks. A great MP result for my double, at least!

Nick: -120
Jack: -140
IMPs: 1 (-32 total)

Wednesday, February 09, 2011

Bridge Match 1 - Board 123

Board 123 – Dealer South – No Vul

My hand: J T 9 8 5 K 7 6 3 2 A J T

I pass and West opens 1 club. Partner overcalls 1 diamond and East bids 2 clubs. I bid 3 clubs which I'm hoping is Michael's but I have a sinking suspicion it isn't. West bids 4 clubs and partner doubles. I have to imagine that's for penalty but I can't see sitting for it. I pull to 4 hearts. Partner goes to 5 diamonds which gets passed out. East leads the 3 of spades.

NORTH K A J 9 Q 7 6 4 2 8 7 5 2




EAST
3

SOUTH
J T 9 8 5
K 7 6 3 2
A J T



West North East South
Pass
11 2 31
4Double2 Pass 4
Pass5 All Pass
1Constructive Raise
2Penalty

I have 4 diamonds and 2 hearts. I can probably set up a couple more hearts and maybe I can set up spades. Alternatively I can just try to cross ruff the black suits. Loserwise I could lose 1 diamonds, I will lose 1 spade, and I may lose a heart. I'll probably lose trump control at some point and lose some other stuff too, sadly. I think my plan is going to be to try to set up spades.

3-5-A-K. West shifts to the A of clubs. A-2-9-T of diamonds. I play out the J of spades. West plays low. Should I ruff or take a ruffing finesse? If I take the finesse and it fails East will return a club and I'll end up losing the K of diamonds for sure for down 1. I could hope East has Qxx of spades and try to ruff out the Q. This lets me take the diamond finesse which will let me pick up specifically Kx onside only. I can't see 11 tricks this way. So I think I need to just pitch a club and hope. J-2-5 of clubs-Q. East returns the 8 of hearts for some reason. 8-2-Q-A. I now have 5 major suit tricks set up. If I can avoid a diamond loser I'll make. They have 5 diamonds between them, and I can only possibly pick up stiff K or Kx in East. Kx is way more likely, so I go for that. 2-5-J-K. Oh well.

West comes back with a club. Q-7-4-A of diamonds. I'm actually going to lose another diamond now, unless the 9 is now stiff. I cash a spade to pitch my last club and then need to find a way back to board. If East has the last spade I can ruff a spade to board and draw trump. If hearts aren't 4-1 I can just play a heart to board. East's heart shift has me worried about the heart being ruffed, so I play a spade. 8-6 of clubs-4 of diamonds-7. I cash the Q of diamonds and East shows out. West has two trump left. They're actually the 9 and 8 of trump, so they're both high and I will lose 2 more trump tricks. But this time I'm not going to repeat the mistake from a few boards ago and will cash winners, forcing him to ruff in. I get 2 of the last 4. Down 3.



NORTH
K
A J 9
Q 7 6 4 2
8 7 5 2

WEST
A 4 2
Q
K 9 8 3
A Q J T 6

EAST
Q 7 6 3
T 8 5 4
5
Q 7 6 3

SOUTH
J T 9 8 5
K 7 6 3 2
A J T


Professor Jack disagrees with pulling the penalty double. On the play he disagrees with my method of getting to board to try to draw trump at the end. He would have just pitched a heart winner on the spade. Seems weird, but I guess he's playing for 4-1 diamonds.


On the replay my hand makes the same cue-bid, knowing what the bid actually means. He doesn't pull the penalty double, which could be good. There is a line to make 4 clubs doubled, lets hope Jack finds it. (Actually, I think I'm wrong and the best he can do is down 1... Frowns.)

North leads a diamond to his partner's A. South returns a diamond and declarer ducks and ruffs. He then tries to draw trump, finding the 4-0 break. He then drops the stiff K of spades, ruffs his last diamond, and then exits a heart. North cashes a heart on which declarer pitches his last spade loser. He has 5 winners in hand and can draw all the trump. Making 4, doubled. Guess there was a way to make!

Nick: -150
Jack: -510
IMPs: +8 (-33 total)

Tuesday, February 08, 2011

World of Warcraft Patch 4.0.6 - Death Knights

A new patch came out today and I thought it would be interesting to look at the changes that will affect the way I play the game as a primarily tanking Death Knight.

- Death Coil damage reduced by 10% - I only ever cast this on Magmaw/Cho'gall to try to proc runic empowerment. Won't change the way I play or affect my performance in any meaningful way.
- Icebound Fortitude now breaks stuns when used - Awesome for pvp, will allow me to interrupt on Halfus during roars once. Not much of a change.
- Necrotic Strike nerfed for resilience and debuff duration. Pretty irrelevant since I never have to apply the cats slow debuff.
- 9% free spell hit - Awesome all around. Works to remove one of my two interrupting obstacles which will increase the number of fights I can reasonably tank properly. Mediocre threat increase, too, not that that matters.
- Bone shield gains a charge - I really need to cast this more often. This just makes it better, maybe that will be enough to force me to use it.
- Crimson scourge redesigned. - Pretty sure it was wrong to have this talent before the patch (after I learned to use Outbreak properly it went down in value) but at least I was casting Blood Boil in my rotation to maintain debuffs. Now I won't cast it except on AE phases so it's probably right to dump it.
- Heart Strike damage buff - This makes up a non-insignificant amount of my damage and is a strict buff. I won't hit the button more often because of the buff but I can't complain. (And I will hit the button more often now what with not casting Blood Boil.)
- Death Strike damage buff - This should make Death Strike my biggest damage ability instead of Rune Strike. Now if only I could find a way to hit it more often too...
- Blood Shield buff - Blood Shield now stacks, so when I hit Death Strike twice in a row I'm not being stupid anymore. Yay changes which make up for being terrible! (Though now it may not even be terrible to hit it twice in close succession, since I can 'roll' the shield forward. Theoretically this would let me eat a double strike on Chimaeron and then completely absorb his next melee attack if I happen to pull aggro from the 120k healing, for example.)
- Scarlet Fever change - This is my 10% ap debuff and it now comes from my unholy disease instead of from Blood Boil. I maintained both diseases anyway, so this is just a buff for me. I no longer need to cast stupid Blood Boil. Does mean on AE fights I need to spread diseases ASAP instead of just hitting Blood Boil for half of my debuffs and dealing with the other one as I felt like it.
- Will of the Necropolis change - no longer resets a blood rune, instead makes Rune Tap free. I like this change since if I don't feel like Rune Tapping I don't get put further from Blade Barrier. Hopefully it will also make the ability glow shiny so I think to use it more often.
- Chilblains makes Chains of Ice into a root - I like this though I never cast Chains of Ice anyway.
- Howling Blast does 40% less damage to secondary targets - This is a huge one. I'm on add killing duty on both Magmaw and Cho'gall and this substantially impacts my ability to do those jobs. Well, on Magmaw it doesn't really matter. I was able to do it in ungemmed, unenchanted greens. I could do my job on this fight if they have 5 billion health. It's a little trickier to pick up a new group when there's an old group alive but it's just tricky, not hard. Cho'gall on the other hand the adds can't be kited around forever. They have to die ASAP and thus far it's been predominantly Howling Blast killing them. The rest of our DPS will need to pick up the slack here or we won't be able to win anymore.
- Hungering Cold nerfed in PvP - only a PvP nerf.
- Might of the Frozen Wastes change - 12% more melee damage when using a 2-hander is a huge buff. About 2/3rds of my single target damage seems to come from melee sources, so this is almost an 8% damage buff. Cho'gall's adds may be getting harder but phase 3 will get a little easier when I'm doing 8% more than I used to.
- Blightcaller redesign - I'm never unholy but it's good that mastery won't suck anymore since all my gear for both specs is loaded with mastery.
- Dark Transformation nerf - I'm never unholy but it sucks.
- Death's Advance added - Unholy can't be slowed in PvP anymore. This seems overpowered. Maybe I will be unholy some of the time now.
- Desecration buffed - PvP relevant only.
- Magic Suppression nerfed - Supposedly raiding DKs only wanted to put 1/3 talents here because the runic power was infinite at that point. I guess now you may need to put 2/3 or 3/3?
- Rage of Rivendare nerfed - I'm never unholy but it sucks.
- Runic Corruption buffed - This only really helps people who don't maintain a proper priority system and end up dumping all their runic power in chunks. That's what I tend to do, so yay!
- Shadow Infusion nerfed - I'm never unholy but it sucks.
- Sudden Doom nerfed - They never intended for dual-wield unholy to be a spec and this is what was really propping it up. Good-bye dual-wield unholy. Good-bye.
- Unholy Might nerfed - I'm never unholy but it sucks.
- Virulence redesigned - They rolled the old Virulence into just being a DK. Now it makes diseases do 30% more damage. Diseases were 13.5% of my damage on Al'Akir as frost DPS, so taking this would be an overall 4% damage buff for 3 talent points. I probably want that. For tanking, diseases were 13.3% of my damage but less of my threat since they don't have a bonus multiplier. If I need to take talents to just do more damage I'll look into it, but I don't have threat issues so I may find something else to take instead.
- Glyph of Dark Succor added - Irrelevant for tanking and unlikely to find a use while DPSing.
- Glyph of Death's Embrace nerfed - I use this in PvP and was considering going for Lichborne in my tanking spec for more healing. Now it's less more healing, so maybe not.
- Runeforge buffs - Disarm effects increased, but I don't use those runes so I don't care.
- Misc bug fixes - Whatever.


Unholy got kicked in the junk, especially dual-wield unholy. If one had faith in Blizzard's ability to get numbers right then one could assume the Unholy mastery change will off-set the various nerfs to all sources of damage for unholy but I don't have any such faith.

Frost is likely in a better place now. More single target damage and less AE damage is what the spec actually needed for PvE. My only concern is they didn't nerf Howling Blast enough and I'm still going to have to respec for add based fights.

Blood just got better. Damage buffs and quality of life buffs without a single nerf. I like it.

Monday, February 07, 2011

Death Strike Redux

A month ago I went over the distribution of different Death Strike results for a BWD run. After making that post I downloaded a mod to try to better track when I should Death Strike and when I should _not_ Heart Strike (because it would use a death rune). I've also gotten better gear (base death strike value went from 12211 to 13396 in that month, so I've gotten about 10% more base health). How have things changed, if at all?

I used to get a lot of 'full big heals', with almost 52% of all Death Strikes across Argaloth, trash, and 5 BWD bosses. (Though only one pull of Atramedes.) This week I had only 37% 'full big heals'. Chimaeron was again the biggest contributor, this time going up to 76% of my Chimaeron Death Strikes being a 'full big heal'. And it's only that low because of the 99% healing penalty during the final phase and my inability to properly handle it. (I should probably just delete them straight up.) Chimaeron is a pretty ludicrous fight for Death Strike anyway, with it consistently healing in the 47-55k range.

Filtering out Chimaeron, I had 42% of my Death Strikes being a base heal of some kind a month ago. This time around it was almost 60% being a base heal. Sadly the percentage of 'full base heals' barely changed and the increase came from extra overhealing. I do get to keep the shield, apparently, so that's not abysmal. It does mean that stamina is actually better than I was previously giving it credit for, though, with so much of my Death Strikes being base heals.

If I filter out Argaloth and trash (who cares about those, anyway) things come a little closer together. The big change is I lost 10% from my 'full big heal' number and moved it to a 'partial base heal' number. I think this is going to be because our gear as a whole is just better. Healers are more willing to throw extra healing my way since they have better gear. I mitigate more damage, reducing the size of my heals. And I have more base health, turning some previous big heals into base heals. (A heal could be a 'big' heal if it was just a few points above base.)

The final thing I cared about, which I didn't go into last time but which I still have the raw data for, was frequency of Death Strikes. Back in the middle of December I looked at Death Strike frequency and found I was hitting the button every 12.5 seconds which is way below theoretical maximums. At the time I was never using Outbreak and was often spamming Heart Strike when it lit up, burning away death runes. This is bad, and I've been trying to get better at it. Have I succeeded?

Well, a month ago I was at 10.7s on Argaloth, 13.3s on Omnitron, 15.3s on Maloriak, 8.4s on Chimaeron, and 10.3s on Atramedes. This week I was at 9.2s on Argaloth, 10.2s on Omnitron, 8.9s on Maloriak, 8.7s on Chimaeron, 8.5s on Atramedes. On the surface this is _way_ better than before and may also help explain why I'm overhealing more with Death Strike and getting more base heals with it. I'm just using it more (and not timing it very well other than Chimaeron).

Digging a little deeper, I had to make some assumptions on both the Maloriak and Atramedes numbers. It's not really fair to ding me for not Death Strike during the air phases of Atramedes, for example, since I don't fly and can't hit him with it. So I cut out big gaps in the log that presumably were air phases, but if I was being really terrible it would have been cut out too. (I really don't think I went 40+ seconds without hitting Death Strike when he's on the ground, but it's possible.) Similarly with Maloriak, when there are no adds up I can't hit Death Strike. Unfortunately here I just tend to not hit Death Strike period. (I frequently have to pull adds in to me and use Icy Touch to facilitate that. If I'm using a melee strike on anything it's going to be Rune Strike, not Death Strike, at least until I get 6+ adds on me.) I think just flat out throwing the Maloriak numbers out is wise. However, this does beg the question of why I'm tanking Maloriak's adds at all. If incoming tank damage was at all relevant on the fight it really seems like the block tank should be on adds and I should be on the boss.

Chimaeron was a little worse this week than last month but that's actually explained by Pounda having aggro when we transitioned to phase 3 instead of me. I ran off to a corner and waited for him to die (and therefore didn't hit any buttons). Possibly this is wrong and I should be getting in my anemic beatdown while Pounda survives. I also did my best this week to not hit Death Strike excessively during feud. He knocks me back to 1 right after anyway, so it's pretty much wasted. I want to end feud with 2 frost, 2 unholy, and 0 blood runes active and I know I did a better job of that this week than last month.

One thing is clear, though. I am doing a lot better at hitting the button more often than every 12.5 seconds. My tanking stat valuation post assumed Death Strike every 12 seconds with 50% being base when in actuality it's more like every 9.3 seconds with 60% being base which substantially increases the value of stamina, mastery, and haste relative to armour, dodge, and parry.

But this is all for farm content. I'm in almost full 359 gear so comparing how I do against Maloriak's adds is a little silly. Unfortunately I don't actually tank the hard fights we're doing right now (Howling Blast is both fair and reasonable) so it's hard to judge where I actually stand. Hopefully we actually get to work on Nef or heroics soon so I can have some bigger numbers to crunch.

Sunday, February 06, 2011

Bridge Match 1 - Board 122

Board 122 – Dealer East – All Vul

My hand: J 7 K 7 3 T 9 6 5 3 A 7 2

West opens 1 heart in 3rd seat. Partner overcalls 2 diamonds and East bids 2 hearts. Now, if we're going to make anything in no-trump we probably want it played from my hand what with the K of hearts here and all. We should have 7 tricks in no trump with 5 diamonds and my 2 high cards. Could partner have two more (including a spade stopper) to make 3NT a good spot to be?

I think I'll start with 2NT, showing my stopper, and see where we go from there. West bids 3 hearts, partner bids 3NT, and everyone passes. West leads the A of hearts.

NORTH
9 5 2
Q
A Q J 7 4 2
K Q 5
WEST
A



SOUTH
J 7
K 7 3
T 9 6 5 3
A 7 2


West North East South
Pass Pass
1 2 2 2NT
3 3NT All Pass

Well, partner doesn't have solid diamonds and he doesn't have a spade stopper. I hope they don't switch! The heart goes A-Q-5-7. West switches to a spade. 3-2-K-7. East doesn't switch to a heart, he stays with spades. 8-J-Q-5. A-9-4-3 of hearts. T-2 of diamonds-6-3 of diamonds. Back to hearts, which I win in hand.

If I can find the K of diamonds I'm down just 1. Can it help to cash the clubs? I doubt it. It could hurt, if I lose the diamond and they can cash the 13th club.

I lead the T of diamonds and West plays the K. I am therefore up. Down 1. Which, I believe, is good bridge.


NORTH
9 5 2
Q
A Q J 7 4 2
K Q 5

WEST
A Q T 3
A T 8 6 4 2
K
J 8

EAST
K 8 6 4
J 9 5
8
T 9 6 4 3

SOUTH
J 7
K 7 3
T 9 6 5 3
A 7 2


Professor Jack disagrees with my bidding 2NT. He wants me to bid 3 diamonds instead.


On the replay my hand overcalls 3 diamonds. West bids 3 hearts, North bids 4 diamonds, West bids 4 hearts. Declarer screws up, taking a double finesse he can't repeat. This causes him to lose both the K and Q of hearts, and goes down 2 instead of down 1.

Nick: -100
Jack: 200
IMPs: -7 (-41 total)

Saturday, February 05, 2011

Bridge Match 1 - Board 121

Board 121 – Dealer North – EW Vul

My hand: A T 9 4 2 Q 6 3 K 9 8 T 5

East opens 1 club in 2nd chair. I double. West bids 1 heart and partner jumps to 3 diamonds. East bids 3 hearts. I bid 3 spades and partner raises to 4. East doubles for penalty. Should I run to 5 diamonds? Diamonds is probably a better spot but I doubt it's two tricks better so I pass as does everyone else.

West leads the 9 of clubs.


NORTH
J 3
7 5
A 7 4 3 2
K Q 6 4
WEST
9



SOUTH
A T 9 4 2
Q 6 3
K 9 8
T 5


West North East South
Pass 1 Double
1 3 33
Pass 4 Double1All Pass
1Penalty

Huh. I guess we don't have a double fit. I wonder why partner decided to raise. I was just competing. I have 3 spades, 1 club, and 2 diamond tricks. I don't exactly have a lot of play for more tricks. I might be able to pick up a spade honour, or ruff a heart, or maybe win my T of clubs if West lead the 9 from J9(x).

That doesn't seem very likely. 9-K-A-5. East returns the A of hearts. A-6-2-5. East shifts back to clubs. J-T-3-Q. I can get my heart ruff now, so I go for it. 7-K-3-4. Guess I don't need to get a ruff after all, since my Q is now good.

East comes back with yet another club. Could clubs really be 5-2? Yes, I think they are. Can I gain by pitching a diamond loser instead of ruffing? Not really, since West will just pitch too and East will play another high club afterwards. So I ruff highish. 8-9 of spades-5 of diamonds-4. I think it's time to put a stop to that by pitching my last club. I cash a heart. Q-T-6 of clubs-8.

I play a diamond up to board so I can finesse spades. 8-6-A-T. 3-5-T-K. West fires back a diamond. Q-2-J-K. My diamond in hand is actually high now, once I finish dealing with spades. Cashing the A is only terrible when spades split 4-1, but nothing is good when that's true. So I do it anyway. A-6-J-Q. West still has a high spade. Down 2, doubled. Oh, what's this? Spades actually were 4-2 since we didn't have a fit. Right. West has two high spades and I didn't force him to ruff a diamond so I'm actually down 4. Oops.


NORTH
J 3
7 5
A 7 4 3 2
K Q 6 4

WEST
K 8 7 6
J T 4 2
Q 6 5
9 3

EAST
Q 5
A K 9 8
J T
A J 8 7 2

SOUTH
A T 9 4 2
Q 6 3
K 9 8
T 5


Professor Jack disagrees with my double. He says it promises 11 points and wants me to overcall instead. I don't like that thought process. I can see the case for saying I should pass, but double vs overcall shouldn't be a points thing. It should be a distribution thing. And with reasonable support for all 3 other suits and no concentration of power in spades, well, I like double. He then dislikes 3 spades and wants me to pass. My think was I wanted partner to know my distribution in case he had a good sac over 4 hearts since we're white on red. Clearly we were on different pages here, since he sacced before they even made it to 4 hearts and didn't have a good sac since he only had 2 spades.

Duriing the play, Jack doesn't want me to pitch a club when I cash my heart Q. He wants me to pitch a very irrelevant diamond. I don't see why. He then doesn't want me to draw trump. He wants me to just run diamonds. Finally he disagrees with exiting a low trump at the end which was clearly wrong. I just lost count of spades when I did it. That one's on me for sure.


On the replay they get to 3 hearts and stop. It turns out this is actually too high for them, and they go down 1.

Looking at it again, why did my partner jump to 3 diamonds? I took it as being weak which is why I was thinking of needing to sac over 4 hearts. But he did have a 10 count, and a misfit 10-count at that since most of his power is in the suit I doubled for takeout.

Nick: -800
Jack: 100
IMPs: -14 (-34 total)

Friday, February 04, 2011

Bridge Match 1 - Board 120

Board 120 – Dealer West – No Vul

My hand: T 9 5 K 8 6 3 A 9 5 T 9 8

Partner opens 1 spade. I raise to 2. Partner bids 3 clubs which is presumably some sort of help suit game try. My hand is terrible, so I bid 3 spades which gets passed out.

East leads the 2 of diamonds.


NORTH
A K J 3 2
T 5 2
Q
A Q 6 5



EAST
2

SOUTH
T 9 5
K 8 6 3
A 9 5
T 9 8


West North East South
Pass 1 Pass 2
Pass 3 Pass 3
Pass Pass Pass

I have 4 spades, 1 club, and 1 diamond. Theoretically I can pick up extra tricks in every suit with finesses but I need 3 of them to come home. Unfortunately I have no entries to board at all, except the ace of diamonds and if I use that as an entry I can't finesse diamonds. I could also get a trick from the 4th heart, or the 4th club, or ruff the 4th club. Or I could dummy reversal and ruff 3 red cards on board.

Loserwise I'm going to lose maybe a spade, 2 or 3 hearts, 1 or 2 clubs, and maybe 1 diamond.

I think I'm going to go way down if the heart finesse isn't on, but I'm going to go for it. I play low. 2-5-K-Q. West returns a diamond. Huzzah! J-2 of hearts-4-A. I ruff my last diamond. 9-T-2 of spades-7.

I cash one round of trump just to see if the Q drops. A-4-5-7. I play a heart but don't even need to finesse. 5-A-3-9. East returns another heart. 4-K-Q-T. I like the look of that queen. I play another heart. 6-3 of diamonds-3 of spades-7.

Given that I pretty much have to lead a club off board, is there any layout I can play for that's favourable? Well, I'm pretty sure East started with 3 diamonds and 4 hearts, so he had 6 black cards. He signaled an odd number of spades, so he should be 3-3 in the black suits. That means West also has 3 clubs. If East has both honours and I duck a club he wins and returns the last heart. I ruff, draw trump, and have to lose the last two tricks for down 1 unless West has the Q of spades. Which he actually probably does with them both not bidding.

If the honours are split I have no play.

If West has both honours I need to play anything but the A to start.

So, I lead low. 5-2-T-J. West returns a trump. I hop with the K since I can't see any winning line with finessing. 6-K-Q-T. Interesting. So East had only 2 spades. He must then have 4 clubs. Maybe I can drop West's now stiff K. A-7-8-3. Oh well. I duck a club. 6-4-9-K. I guess the wrong assumption was that diamonds split 5-3. West returns a diamond into a ruff and sluff and I get the last two tricks on a cross-ruff. Making 3.


NORTH
A K J 3 2
T 5 2
Q
A Q 6 5

WEST
8 7 6
Q 9
K J T 6 3
K J 3

EAST
Q 4
A J 7 4
8 7 4 2
7 4 2

SOUTH
T 9 5
K 8 6 3
A 9 5
T 9 8


Professor Jack disagrees with ruffing the heart at the end. He wants me to just finesse clubs which is probably right since I had a hard time finding a winning play after running a heart, though if they split 3-3 it would have been ok-ish. Maybe.


On the replay West gets into the auction by bidding 3 diamonds over 2 spades. North just blasts straight to 4 spades. East leads a diamond like before. Declarer ducks like I did, losing to the K. West switches to a club, ducked to the 8. Declarer cashes the diamond, pitching a heart. He then finesses in spades, losing to the Q. East cashes the A of hearts but declarer knows the club suit is working so his hand is up. Making 4.

Nick: 140
Jack: 420
IMPs: -7 (-27 total)