Final Fantasy: Incoming Damage

{Found this post in my draft folder and figured better really late than never, right?}

Monsters follow very precise rules for how they act in combat. The first thing they do is check to see if they're going to run away. To find out they roll a number between 0 and 50 and add it to a monster intrinsic stat called morale. If that result is less than 80 plus twice your character's level they run away. The key here is they only check the guy in slot 1's level, so theoretically if I moved one of my friendly corpses into the first slot monsters would stop being scared of me.

Assuming they don't run they then check to see if they cast a spell. Every monster that can cast spells has a set chance to cast a spell. If this check succeeds they cast the next spell on their list of spells to cast. There's nothing random about which spell they cast. The first time they cast a spell they always cast the first spell in line. The second time they cast a spell they always cast the second spell in line. If they cast all their spells they start again at the start.

Assuming they don't cast a spell they check to see if they use an enemy skill which works they same way as casting a spell does. They have a list of skills and use the first one in line first and so on.

Assuming they don't use a skill they melee attack.


Astos has 255 morale which means he can't run away. (Max character level is 50 so the highest my side of the equation could be is 180. 255 plus a random number is always bigger than 180.)

Astos in particular has a 97 in 129 chance to cast a spell, or practically 75%. The spells he casts, in order, are Rub, Slow2, Fast, Fir2, Lit2, Slow, Dark, Sleep.

Astos has no skills.

If he attacks he attacks once per round with at attack value of 26. His hit is 42. His crit is 1. At level 28 my thief will have around 68 evade and 6 absorb. So he hits me for an average of 33 a swing, 39 on a crit. Out of 201 swings he'll crit me 2 times and hit me 140 times. Overall, that's a little over 23 damage each time he attacks. So his attacks are not scary at all.

In general spells make the same attack roll as melee attacks do, a number between 0 and 200. The base hit chance for a spell is 148 instead of 168 and there is no hit stat. The targets magic defense is used as an evade modifier. At level 28 a thief has 69 magic defense. (15 base + 2 per level)

What do his spells do?

Rub - instantly kills the target - Roll a number between 0 and 200 and compare against 148+24-69. So about 51% of the time I'm instantly killed.
Slow2 - forces the target to attack exactly once when they autoattack. 148+64-69, or 71% of the time I essentially can't win.
Fast - doubles the number of attacks Astos gets when he melees. This makes his attack average 46 instead of 23.
Fir2 - hit for between 30 and 60 damage. Roll to see if it hits. If it hits, do double damage. If it misses do normal damage. 148+24-69. So 51% of the time I take 90 damage, 49% of the time I take 45 damage. 68 damage on average.
Lit2 - exactly the same as fire but a different element. 68 damage on average.
Slow - the same as Slow2 except for some reason this hits all targets. So 71% of the time I essentially can't win. It is possible since this is cast so late in his rotation that I can still win after it gets cast.
Dark - Blinds the target. When blind a target has 40 knocked off their attack rolls made and 40 added to incoming attack rolls. Lands 51% of the time.
Sleep - Being asleep increasing incoming melee damage by 25% and reduces your evade to 0. You can't take an action but sleep is removed on your next action if a roll between 0 and 80 is less than your maximum health. Lands 51% of the time.


The question of how many rounds I get to live is therefore very complicated. I'll have close to 600 maximum health at level 28 and fudging the numbers some in terms of incoming damage modified by dark and sleep and such I probably take around 65 damage per 'attack' be it a spell or a melee swing. So I get to live until his 10th attack or until he successfully lands any of rub, slow2, or slow. Abstract things and say he attacks every 3 spells. Then after 18 spell casts he'll have meleed 6 times and cast 4 damage spells which is my dying point. So from damage I probably get 18ish swings. But to make it that far I have to avoid 3 rubs, 3 slow2s, and 2 slows. I do that .02% of the time. So, uh, not happening.

Fortunately I found that I only need 9 rounds to win. (Well, 26 swings at 3 swings per round.) That's barely once through his cast bar, so I have nothing to worry about in terms of damage taken and just need to avoid 3 death attacks. The last one isn't even that bad, since I'll already have most of my 26 swings in. Really, I have a 14% chance of avoiding the initial rub and slow2 and beyond that I probably win at level 28. But I'm less convinced I can get lucky and win at level 26.