Bridge Match 1 - Board 119

Board 119 – Dealer South – All Vul

My hand: ♠ J 8 4 ♥ A 7 ♦ A Q 9 7 ♣ K 9 3 2

I open 1 club. Partner responds 1 heart, Walsh. East overcalls 1 spade which gets passed out. I lead the A of hearts.

WEST ♠ T 5 ♥ 8 6 4 3 ♦ K 6 3 ♣ Q 8 5 4
	SOUTH ♠ J 8 4 ♥ 7 ♦ A Q 9 7 ♣ K 9 3 2

West	North	East	South
			1♣
Pass	1♥1	1♠	All Pass
1Walsh

A-3-2-5. Partner doesn't want me to return a heart. I don't know that I care. I want my ruff, and if he has a high spade I get one. 7-4-T-K. Declarer draws trump. Q-4-5-6. K-8-T-2. A-J-3 of diamonds-7. And now back to hearts. 9-2 of clubs-6-J. Partner tries to cash his last heart. Q-3 of spades-7 of diamonds-8. Declarer shifts to a club. 6-9-4-T. Partner shifts to a diamond, establishing one for declarer. 5-2-A-6. I give declarer his diamond. 9-K-T-8. Declarer ducks a club. 5-A-7-3. I get my Q of diamonds and declarer gets his trump at the end. Just in. I guess pretty much any other lead and we can set them. Doh.

	NORTH ♠ 7 6 2 ♥ Q J T 2 ♦ T 5 4 ♣ A J T
WEST ♠ T 5 ♥ 8 6 4 3 ♦ K 6 3 ♣ Q 8 5 4		EAST ♠ A K Q 9 3 ♥ K 9 5 ♦ J 8 2 ♣ 7 6
	SOUTH ♠ J 8 4 ♥ A 7 ♦ A Q 9 7 ♣ K 9 3 2

Professor Jack wants me to open 1 diamond.


On the replay my hand opens 1 diamond but the auction ends the same way. My hand leads the A of hearts off the top, too, and they also make 1.

Nick: -80
Jack: -80
IMPs: 0 (-20 total)

Sacrificing at IMPs (White on Red)

Yesterday I went over the potential outcomes when your table is in a 6 hearts that you think could/should make and you could bid 6 spades doubled which you're sure is going down at least 2 and possibly 4 (or even 5!) We were red and the opponents were white and sacrificing was right but only if we were sure partner had spades or diamonds or both to cover our non-Ace losers. Today we'll look at the same information but with the vulnerabilities switched.

IMP result if I pass 6 hearts.

tricks in S/H	4 or 5 hearts	5 spades doubled	6 hearts	6 spades doubled
10/12	-13	-16	0	-15
10/11	13	5	0	9
9/12	-13	-15	0	-14
9/11	13	9	0	12
8/12	-13	-14	0	-12
8/11	13	12	0	14

IMP result if I bid 6 spades (doubled).

tricks in S/H	4 or 5 hearts	5 spades doubled	6 hearts	6 spades doubled
10/12	9	-5	15	0
10/11	8	-5	-9	0
9/12	5	-5	14	0
9/11	4	-5	-12	0
8/12	-3	-7	12	0
8/11	-4	-7	-14	0

IMP gain by bidding 6 spades (doubled) compared to passing 6 hearts.

tricks in S/H	4 or 5 hearts	5 spades doubled	6 hearts	6 spades doubled
10/12	22	11	15	15
10/11	-5	-10	-9	-9
9/12	18	10	14	14
9/11	-9	-14	-12	-12
8/12	10	7	12	12
8/11	-17	-19	-14	-14

Our gain is better in every single cell of this table as opposed to the one from yesterday. We didn't include the down 5 option (possible if you can't take a single diamond trick) in either chart but it would have been an insane loser yesterday. Very bad if they were making and abysmal if they were going down in 6 hearts. On the flip side, today it would still be a positive move when they're making. (Pretty darn bad if they're going down, but at least if you're very sure they're making it's a good sac even at down 5.)

Perhaps the biggest difference comes when the other table stops in 4 or 5 hearts. Yesterday your loss when 6 didn't make was more than your gain when it did at all numbers of spade tricks. If you were going down 3 and the other table stopped short 6 hearts had to be making 19 of 22 times (86%) just to break even. On the other hand, the same situation with today's table only has to see 6 hearts make 9 of 27 times (33%) for the sac to be right.

A similar difference shows up when the other table stops in 5 spades doubled. Assuming down 3 again, bidding on yesterday was right if they had more than a 86% chance of making. Today it's right to bid on if they have more than a 58% chance of making.

This is something you can actually try to figure out. Are your teammates apt to miss their 26 point distributional slams? If so then saccing red on white is almost certainly going to be wrong. You need to be sure partner has the spades/diamonds you need to make it reasonable. Saccing white on red, on the other hand, has a lot of value. You need to be _really_ sure you're going to set them to let them sit in this 6 heart contract with wimpy/non-accurate teammates. There's no way with my hand that I can have any confidence of setting them more than 2/3rds chance of setting them, so if I doubt Andrew and Byung will find/get pushed into the slam, I need to sac this time.

Sacrificing at IMPs (Red on White)

Byung commented on Board 117 that he'd be worried about the opponents making 6 hearts holding my hand. Since partner never acted and I only have 1 ace with a very distributional hand he has good reason to be worried. It's possible that ace doesn't even cash what with there being only 6 outstanding spades between 3 hands. (Especially if partner refuses to bid with 4 of them. I asked Andrew what he would have done and he would have done everything Jack did on that hand, including the low spade lead. *sigh*) My only other chance at a trick is the diamond king, which is only a trick when West doesn't have AQ and when they don't have 11 tricks outside of diamonds. With me have stiffs in both hearts and clubs that isn't very unreasonable at all, especially with the amount of bidding they did.

Assume they make it to 6 hearts at my table. (I did consider bidding 5 spades off the hop to put them to one heck of a guess, after all, and partner saccing 5 spades over 5 hearts is often a bad idea but could happen anyway.) At IMPs, I need to compare my potential actions against what the other table is going to do. They could end up stopping in 4 (or 5). They could play 5 spades doubled. They could play 6 hearts. They could play 6 spades doubled. I can't imagine stopping in a part-score or in just 4 spades. As far as my potential result, I can either leave them in 6 hearts or I can play 6 spades doubled. Also I need to look at how many tricks are actually there in spades and in hearts, represented by X/Y. Realistic numbers are, I think, 10/12, 10/11, 9/12, 9/11, 8/12, and 8/11.

IMP result if I pass 6 hearts.

tricks in S/H	4 or 5 hearts	5 spades doubled	6 hearts	6 spades doubled
10/12	-11	-13	0	-10
10/11	11	6	0	11
9/12	-11	-10	0	-5
9/11	11	11	0	13
8/12	-11	-5	0	3
8/11	11	13	0	15

IMP result if I bid 6 spades (doubled).

tricks in S/H	4 or 5 hearts	5 spades doubled	6 hearts	6 spades doubled
10/12	-1	-7	10	0
10/11	-2	-7	-11	0
9/12	-8	-7	5	0
9/11	-8	-7	-13	0
8/12	-12	-7	-3	0
8/11	-12	-7	-15	0

IMP gain by bidding 6 spades (doubled) compared to passing 6 hearts.

tricks in S/H	4 or 5 hearts	5 spades doubled	6 hearts	6 spades doubled
10/12	10	6	10	10
10/11	-13	-13	-11	-11
9/12	3	3	5	5
9/11	-19	-18	-13	-13
8/12	-1	-2	-3	-3
8/11	-23	-20	-15	-15

Now, each of these cells will have different odds of actually occurring, so it's not as straightforward as simply summing all the potential results. Given the information we have let's try to come up with some reasonable odds for the different outcomes. The information we have is East has a maximum pass with clubs and hearts, longer clubs. West has a hand good enough to both takeout double 1 spade and penalty double 4 spades. He has longer hearts than clubs, likely significantly so, since he pulled 5 clubs to 5 hearts. He also has longer hearts than diamonds since he skipped 5 diamonds. Partner is broke. He has either very few points, or very few spades, or both.

How many tricks can I take in spades? Well, partner definitely doesn't have any aces, so 10 tricks is certainly the max. I only get to 10 tricks when I can set up or ruff my diamonds with no additional losers. Which requires Qx and 2 extra spades to ruff with, or Qxx and 1 extra spade, or xx with a correct diamond finesse and 2 extra spades, or xxx with two correct finesses and 1 extra spade. Or Qxx with diamonds 3-3 or Qxxx with diamonds 3-2, and so on. If partner has long diamonds then they're massively double fit in the round suits and must be making. If partner has the extra spades and the Q of diamonds they're again massively double fit. If partner has neither then my A of spades should cash, maybe the K of spades too, and partner may have a long trump trick.

Certainly I think their odds of making go way up when our odds of taking 10 tricks go up. 10/11 actually seems pretty unlikely, unless partner somehow has the A of diamonds. The other /11s could happen when partner has a round trick and I have no way of knowing if he does or not. If he does, we shouldn't bid on. If he doesn't, and has either spades or diamonds then we should bid. I have no way of knowing that, so I can't ever make the winning play.

There is a way I could gain that information, though. After an auction of P-P-1S-X partner actually gets a turn to bid. Even with the 4-3-3-3 3 count that he had, I want him to bid 3 spades. And I believe I can infer he doesn't have long spades when he doesn't do so, really making pass over 6 hearts the right play from my hand. I probably should have seen the problem coming in the first place and bid 3 diamonds and not 4 spades, trying to find out if we're actually double fit or not.

At any rate, saccing red on white at IMPs is pretty hard to justify. We really needed a perfect storm to set up to actually make it a super-winning play on the actual board (10/12 was the actual layout). And the opponent actually never found their slam at either table anyway, so it's really a moot point. Just interesting to look at, I thought.

Bridge Match 1 - Board 118

Board 118 – Dealer East – EW Vul

My hand: ♠ A T 9 6 2 ♥ A T 4 ♦ 3 ♣ Q J 8 6

East opens 1 diamond. I double. West bids 1 spade and East jumps to 3NT which gets passed out. I lead the 6 of clubs.

WEST ♠ J 8 5 4 ♥ J 8 5 ♦ Q T 6 ♣ A 7 3
	SOUTH ♠ A T 9 6 2 ♥ A T 4 ♦ 3 ♣ Q J 8 6

West	North	East	South
		1♦	Double
1♠	Pass	3NT	All Pass

6-A-2-5. Declarer floats a diamond around. 6-5-7-3. 2-2 of spades-T-4. Q-3 of spades-8-6 of spades. Declarer has 4 more diamonds in hand and stranded himself on board. Presumably he has an entry to his hand (K of clubs) and will make regardless. He does in fact play a club to the K, so I have 4 winners in hand. I pitch my losers and am up when he's out of diamonds. Just in.

	NORTH ♠ 7 3 ♥ K 9 7 6 3 2 ♦ 5 4 ♣ T 9 2
WEST ♠ J 8 5 4 ♥ J 8 5 ♦ Q T 6 ♣ A 7 3		EAST ♠ K Q ♥ Q ♦ A K J 9 8 7 2 ♣ K 5 4
	SOUTH ♠ A T 9 6 2 ♥ A T 4 ♦ 3 ♣ Q J 8 6

Professor Jack disagrees with my double. He wants me to just bid 1 spade. I feel like I'm happy if partner wants to play in any of the non-diamond suits so I like doubling.


On the replay my hand overcalls 1 spade. This causes West to bid 1NT. East still goes to 3NT but they're playing it from the other side and don't know to avoid a spade lead. North leads a spade, setting up 2 spade tricks for declarer. Unfortunately it turns out my side can run hearts if they lead the A crashing the stiff Q on board, which they know to do since the stiff Q is open at their table. They take 7 tricks off the top for down 3. Ouch.

Nick: -600
Jack: 300
IMPs: -14 (-20 total)

Bridge Match 1 - Board 117

Board 117 – Dealer North – NS Vul

My hand: ♠ A K Q J 9 7 4 ♥ 9 ♦ K J 6 4 ♣ T

So... Nice hand, eh? I open 1 spade in 3rd seat. West doubles and East bids 2 spades, alerted as an unassuming cuebid. Partner's probably completely broke here, so they're probably making 4 hearts. I don't rate to go down much in 4 spades, if any, so I will bid at least that. Should I go to 5 spades right now? At any other vulnerability maybe, but red on white I'll wimp out and just bid 4. West doubles again, this time for penalty. East pulls to 5 clubs.

If 5 clubs is making they'll score up 400 points. West will certainly double me again, so if I go down 2 it's 500 points. Down 2 seems pretty likely and I may end up pushing them into a making slam so I pass. West bids 5 hearts which gets passed to me. I pass again. Maybe I should have started with 5 spades after all?

Partner leads the 3 of spades.

	NORTH ♠ 3
		EAST ♠ 6 ♥ K Q 8 4 ♦ 8 2 ♣ K Q 8 7 5 4
	SOUTH ♠ A K Q J 9 7 4 ♥ 9 ♦ K J 6 4 ♣ T

West	North	East	South
	Pass	Pass	1♠
Double	Pass	2♠1	4♠
Double2	Pass	5♣	Pass
5♥	Pass	Pass	Pass
1Unassuming Cuebid
2Penalty

3-6-A-2. Do I want to let partner get some pitches or should I try for a club ruff? I can't see us taking 2 more tricks unless partner has the A of clubs, so might as well. T-2-3-Q. Oh well. Declarer draws trump. 4-9-A-6. 3-2-Q-4 of spades. 8-7 of spades-J-T.

Declarer shifts back to clubs. 9-6-K-9 of spades. And now a diamond. 2-4-A-7. Clubs again. A-J-4-J of spades. A heart to board. 5-5 of spades-K-Q of spades. Dummy's clubs are up. Making 6.

	NORTH ♠ T 8 5 3 ♥ T 6 2 ♦ Q T 7 ♣ J 6 3
WEST ♠ 2 ♥ A J 7 5 3 ♦ A 9 5 3 ♣ A 9 2		EAST ♠ 6 ♥ K Q 8 4 ♦ 8 2 ♣ K Q 8 7 5 4
	SOUTH ♠ A K Q J 9 7 4 ♥ 9 ♦ K J 6 4 ♣ T

Professor Jack disagrees with my 4 spade bid. It's too aggressive and wildly optimistic. I bid it as a preemptive sacrifice, Jack. It was supposed to be aggressive.

He then disagrees with winning the first trick with the A of spades. He wants me to play the J to let partner know I have the suit locked up. I'd think partner already knew that. And I don't want him ever returning a spade if he has more than 1. (Leading the 3 from 4 small? What?)

He then wants me to return a spade. I almost did, think partner's lead had to be stiff. How could he possibly have 3 or 4 spades on this auction? It would have given them a ruff and sluff which might have been the only way they could make on a different layout.


On the replay my hand only bids 3 spades. West bids 4 hearts which gets passed to my seat who then bids 4 spades. If you were going to bid 4 spades over 4 hearts why didn't you start with 4 spades and take away their bidding room!?! West doubles for penalty and East pulls to 5 hearts. It also makes 6 for a push.

Nick: -480
Jack: -480
IMPs: 0 (-6 total)

Bridge Match 1 - Board 116

Board 116 – Dealer West – All Vul

My hand: ♠ 8 2 ♥ A J 4 ♦ Q 9 5 4 ♣ T 8 7 5

West opens 1 club which gets passed to me. I can't find a bid. Partner leads the 6 of diamonds.

	NORTH ♦ 6
		EAST ♠ T 9 7 5 ♥ 9 8 2 ♦ A 8 7 3 2 ♣ 2
	SOUTH ♠ 8 2 ♥ A J 4 ♦ Q 9 5 4 ♣ T 8 7 5

West	North	East	South
1♣	Pass	Pass	Pass

6-2-Q-K. Declarer continues diamonds. T-4 of clubs-3-4. Partner fires back a low heart. 3-2-A-7. Time to kill board. I return a diamond. 5-J-6 of clubs-7. Partner draws trump. J-2-5-3. Q-8 of diamonds-7-A. 9-K-8 of hearts-8. I have the only remaining trump. If we have one more trick in the majors we set them.

Partner finds a trick by playing the K of hearts. K-9-4-5. 6-5 of spades-J-Q. Declarer goes to spades. 3-Q-7-8. A-9-2-J. I ruff the next spade and have to give dummy his A of diamonds. Down 3.

	NORTH ♠ A Q 6 4 ♥ K 6 3 ♦ 6 ♣ K Q J 6 4
WEST ♠ K J 3 ♥ Q T 7 5 ♦ K J T ♣ A 9 3		EAST ♠ T 9 7 5 ♥ 9 8 2 ♦ A 8 7 3 2 ♣ 2
	SOUTH ♠ 8 2 ♥ A J 4 ♦ Q 9 5 4 ♣ T 8 7 5

Professor Jack agrees with me all the way!


On the replay the auction is the same. The play starts the same, However every time my hand plays a diamond he plays a high one (I always played low, hoping that would be suit preference for hearts). Partner seems to agree, as at the other table North cashes the A of spades, giving them a spade trick. But then declarer ruffs an extra diamond for no reason, removing the endplay that existed at my table. Down 3.

Nick: 300
Jack: 300
IMPs: 0 (-6 total)

Bridge Match 1 - Board 115

Board 115 – Dealer South – EW Vul

My hand: ♠ J T 4 2 ♥ K ♦ A Q J T 7 ♣ A 5 4

I open 1 diamond. Partner responds 1 spade. I raise to 3 and he goes on to 4 which gets passed out. East leads the 3 of hearts.

	NORTH ♠ K Q 7 6 ♥ A J 4 ♦ 5 4 ♣ Q J 9 7
		EAST ♥ 3
	SOUTH ♠ J T 4 2 ♥ K ♦ A Q J T 7 ♣ A 5 4

West	North	East	South
			1♦
Pass	1♠	Pass	3♠
Pass	4♠	All Pass

I have 3 spades, 2 hearts, 1 club, and 1 diamond. I have lots of ways to set up extra tricks in the minors with ruffs or finesses. As far as losers go I have a spade loser and maybe a club and maybe a diamond. My plan is to draw a couple rounds of trump, find out if spades are 3-2 or not, and then set up diamonds. 3-K-9-4. I play trump. J-3-6-A.

East shifts to a club. If I duck this then I may get ruffed back if clubs were 5-1. That doesn't seem that likely and ducking guarantees me at least 1 extra club trick. 6-4-2-7. Interesting. I go back to trump. K-2 of hearts-2-5. So West had 4 trump after all. Can I afford to draw them all? If I draw trump and finesse a diamond then even if it loses I'm only in trouble when diamonds split 5-1 as I then lose 2 diamonds and a club to go with the spade A. Or I can finesse right now. This is only bad if West ruffs? No, then I can ruff for an extra trick. Lets do that up. 5-2-T-6. Now I can make by just ruffing two diamonds in hand. A-8-4-3. 7-9-7 of spades-K. I now have 2 good diamonds, two aces, and 2 high trump as long as I don't get ruffed coming to hand to draw the last trump. I don't. Making 6.

	NORTH ♠ K Q 7 6 ♥ A J 4 ♦ 5 4 ♣ Q J 9 7
WEST ♠ 9 8 5 3 ♥ Q T 9 8 ♦ 9 8 6 ♣ 3 2		EAST ♠ A ♥ 7 6 5 3 2 ♦ K 3 2 ♣ K T 8 6
	SOUTH ♠ J T 4 2 ♥ K ♦ A Q J T 7 ♣ A 5 4

Professor Jack disagrees with my 3 spade bid. I'm too good to invite and he wants me to jump straight to 4 spades.


On the replay my hand jumps straight to game and North passes. At least they're on the same page, but I'd seriously consider driving to slam when I have a 13 count and partner jumps to game after my simple response. Jack fails to untangle his entries and cash his tricks properly and ends up having to lead away from Ax of clubs at the end with the stranded A of hearts having been pitched the trick earlier. He makes 5.

Nick: 480
Jack: 450
IMPs: +1 (-6 total)

Bridge Match 1 - Board 114

Board 114 – Dealer East – NS Vul

My hand: ♠ Q 9 8 ♥ Q 8 2 ♦ K J 9 8 ♣ T 8 6

East opens 1NT. West transfers to Spades and East bids just 2 spades which gets passed out. I lead the 9 of spades.

WEST ♠ K 7 6 5 3 ♥ 6 4 3 ♦ Q T 6 4 ♣ J
	SOUTH ♠ Q 9 8 ♥ Q 8 2 ♦ K J 9 8 ♣ T 8 6

West	North	East	South
		1NT	Pass
2♥1	Pass	2♠	All Pass
1Transfer

9-3-A-4. Partner shifts to the A of hearts. Are we cashing out? Should I signal high to show my Q? I suppose so. A-7-8-3. 5-K-2-4. Declarer shifts to a club. K-6-J-9. A-8-6 of hearts-3. And now diamonds. A-9-4-3. 2-K-6-5. I switch back to clubs. T-5 of spades-4-2. Declarer ruffs a diamond. T-7-T of spades-8. And now draws trump. J-Q-K-2. He cashes the high diamond, throws me in with a spade, and then has a trump left. Making 3.

	NORTH ♠ A 2 ♥ A J 9 5 ♦ 7 5 3 ♣ Q 9 4 3
WEST ♠ K 7 6 5 3 ♥ 6 4 3 ♦ Q T 6 4 ♣ J		EAST ♠ J T 4 ♥ K T 7 ♦ A 2 ♣ A K 7 5 2
	SOUTH ♠ Q 9 8 ♥ Q 8 2 ♦ K J 9 8 ♣ T 8 6

Professor Jack disagrees with my opening lead. He wants me to lead my small heart. Every lead seemed dangerous and I kinda wanted to keep declarer from ruffing in his hand. If partner had returned a trump I think we might have held him to just in by preventing him from setting up diamonds. Oh well.


On the replay the auction is the same. My hand leads the 8 of diamonds! Declarer inserts the T and wins. He crossruffs and manages to induce North to ruff in with his A on a trick South was going to win. They end up making 4.

Nick: -140
Jack: -170
IMPs: +1 (-7 total)