Saturday, January 10, 2015

Bridge Match 3 - Board 48

Board 48 - Dealer West - EW Vul

Opponents convention card: Dutch Doubleton
Opponents playing strength: Good

My hand: K J 8 5 4 9 A K 8 5 4 3 2

East opens 1 heart in 3rd seat. I overcall 1 spade. West bids 2 spades as a constructive raise, partner passes, and East bids 3 spades. ALL THE SPADES! This one shows control in spades for hearts. They cuebid some more and end up settling in 6 hearts.

East should have a singleton A of spades for the cuebidding. He should also have a stiff diamond. I'm not sure I believe their cuebids. I lead the K of diamonds.
WEST
T
Q J 8 7
9 7 4 3
A J 9 5
SOUTH
K J 8 5 4
9
A K 8 5
4 3 2
WestNorthEastSouth
PassPass11
21Pass32Pass
43Pass44Double5
4Pass46Pass
5Pass6Pass
PassPass
1Constructive raise
2Control in spades for hearts
3Control in clubs for hearts
4Control in diamonds for hearts
5Penalty
6Control in spades for hearts

K-3-6-Q. Well, it is looking like stiff Q of diamonds after all. But I can't see a reason to play any other cards and I'm not setting up dummy so I try to cash another diamond. It gets ruffed. Then he draws trump, runs clubs, cashes a spade, and ruffs a spade. And is up, actually. Making 6.
NORTH
Q 9 7 3
4 2
J T 6 2
8 7 6
WEST
T
Q J 8 7
9 7 4 3
A J 9 5
EAST
A 6 2
A K T 6 5 3
Q
K Q T
SOUTH
K J 8 5 4
9
A K 8 5
4 3 2
Every table takes 6 tricks in hearts. But somehow 6 of the tables fail to find a slam. So we only get 1 MP.


Jack mildly disagrees with my double of 4 diamonds. Because he thinks it's a penalty double. It has to be lead directional. (They might end up in 6NT or something and he needs to know about my AK of diamonds. He also disagrees with leading the A of diamonds at trick 2. He'd rather I lead a low diamond. That's insane. If East is false carding from QJ tight it loses the contract! He also gets bitter at my signaling after I knew they had 12 tricks and was just playing the hand out.

Ranking after board 48/60: 12/16 with 48.07%

Friday, January 09, 2015

More Pay To Win Thoughts

Tobold put up a post today claiming that everything that every online game sells is pay to win. He's been saying for an awfully long time that League of Legends has to be pay to win because he didn't think selling skins was a viable business model. So he'd say things like xp boosts were pay to win power boosts when they're completely irrelevant for the majority of the player base. He doesn't seem to have backed off from that stance, though in this post he at least acknowledges that LoL has a successful business model for their game. (Even if he makes that point only to deride it as an option for any other game.)

At any rate, there was a conversation in the comments and I started typing and typing. When I was done the system wouldn't let me post my comment because it was too long. So I pruned it down, but I still had a bunch of stuff written up and I figured I should just make a post about it. On the plus side thinking about the topic in an attempt to figure out why I think Tobold is wrong is useful for thinking things through. Needing to work through why I think what I think is important!
One phrase I took particular exception to was...

Please do! Either there is no win condition at all in World of Warcraft, or everything you want is a win condition in World of Warcraft.


This is a false dichotomy. He's making the claim that it has to be A or B when it should be pretty clear that a spectrum of possibilities has to at least be an option.

What could be more accurate is that anything _could_ be a win condition in World of Warcraft. As essentially an open world game with a plethora of things to do any given person is certainly free to feel good about accomplishing whatever they think is cool. My big concern is when someone else's win condition impacts my win condition. For example, think about the specific instance of pet battles...

Some people will want a lot of high level pets. Some people will want a specific few high level pets that allow them to beat the legendary pet battles. Some people will want a specific few high level pets that allow them to beat other players in pet battles. Some people won't want any pets at all.

Blizzard sells plenty of pets in plenty of ways, and some of them are actually quite powerful. I don't know if they actually sell an exclusive best pet or not, but let's pretend they do. Someone who is an A will think this is mildly pay to win. They'll never be able to get ALL the pets without buying this one. They can still get close, and they can still have fun getting close.

Someone who is a B might think this is pay to win. The difference will be how good the 'free' options happen to be. If the epic PvE fights are trivial without them then they don't matter at all. If they're impossible without them then it is extremely pay to win. If it's somewhere in the middle then you'll have a spectrum of how the B people care about it. If they want a challenge they'll do it without the paid pet. If they want to win easily/quickly then they'll feel obligated to buy the paid pet.

Someone who is a C will think this is definitely pay to win. There's no way to avoid the existence of this pet because your opponents might or might not have paid to get it. Your experience against these people is absolutely impacted, and that's the specific thing you care about. In this hypothetical world you either buy the awesome pet or you can't play the game the way you want to.

If you're a D then you really don't care at all. Picking the pet out of your mailbox wouldn't be worth your time so it could be free or cost a billion dollars and you wouldn't care.


So, is this pet pay to win?

I'd argue the way to make that decision is to look at how many win conditions are impacted by the existence of the item. So the distribution of the players between the different categories and the way non-buyers are impacted need to be considered.

In a world where most people are Cs then this pet has to be considered pay to win. Most people care about head to head battles, and you can't win without paying money. So a large proportion of win conditions among players of the game are impacted.

In a world where most people are Ds then the pet isn't really pay to win. It would probably be more accurate to say that the pet battle part of the game is a paid mini-game. Competitive PvP pet battlers aren't going to be able to play WoW without this pet. Similar to how they won't be able to play a mythical Pokemon Fight game without paying for the game. Now, this mini-game may well be pay to win, but I don't think it existing in a world with mostly Ds would make the overall game pay to win.

The tricky part is when most players are Bs. How many win conditions are impacted in this scenario? The people who like a challenge won't care much because their game experience doesn't change by the item existing, unless the PvE fights are tuned under the assumption you have the awesome pet. (Also, some people will be annoyed that other people get to take the easy mode. I don't particularly care for that argument but I'm sure it can be made.) So it would come down to how the Bs are split and how mandatory the pet feels.


Now, change the framing a little. Instead of a pet it's now a weapon. How would the argument change? The Ds and Cs and As wouldn't change. The Bs would. Why? Because PvE in WoW is often group based. The game itself explicitly gates who can join group content based on their gear and historical experience tells us that players will act the same way. (See: gearscore) So you having this weapon does change my win condition. The game and the players will exclude me from the content I want to do (and by extension make my win condition harder or impossible) regardless on what level of challenge I want.

In a world where the other players or the game itself will exclude you then purely PvE items do impact my gameplay and are pay to win. In a world where I don't interact with the other players in this aspect it isn't pay to win. If you could buy outhouses to get more easy achievements that could be pay to win if your achievement score impacts my game. If it doesn't then it probably wouldn't be.

Basically... I don't care about your win condition. I care about mine. If you spending a lot of money makes it easier for you to win, and that makes you happy, and it doesn't change mine then that's awesome. The developer should make money and this setup probably results in me paying less. But if you paying money hurts me then I'm not happy. So if you can buy a max level character I don't actually care. Extra level 100s wouldn't hurt me. (It might cause some groups to have inexperienced and therefore likely subpar players. But there are plenty of those players anyway.) But if you can buy all the gear to enter the hardest raid finder raids and I have to grind for months before I can get in then I'm not happy. 

Note that the game being pay to win isn't necessarily a deal breaker. I still play some CCGs and you'd be hard pressed to claim that someone who spends a lot of money on Hearthstone packs won't have better cards than I do! I am more likely to get frustrated and quit because of the pay to win aspect, though.

Thursday, January 08, 2015

Get Yourself Speedrunning

The people at Speed Runs Live decided they want to actually capitalize on all the viewership from AGDQ by scheduling three 'easy' races for the 3 weekends after AGDQ. This isn't actually anything terribly special since as far as I know anyone can go and create a race for any game at any time as long as they have at least one opponent lined up. What is special is that they're sporadically advertising it on the AGDQ stream and it has a big banner on the front page.

I'm not sure if they're going to bring in a ton of new people or not, but I'm going to give at least the first one a go. I've actually been idling on the SRL IRC server since last year's AGDQ but never felt like I knew enough to join any of the races. (Both in terms of strategies for any games and in terms of knowing who to talk to.) But now there's a race that's expecting completely new people in both regards. So while I'm certain to get completely destroyed by anyone who actually plays these games I have a chance to not come last if there are enough other new players.

As an added bonus, racing for at least one hour is a requirement for getting your stream featured on the SRL page. Another potential source of viewers! (Only for speedrun related stuff of course, but I'm sure I'll get back to my FFII routing after AGDQ ends.)

Anyway, the three races are Super Mario Bros 3, then A Link to the Past, then Sonic 2. It's not clear if emulating games is cool or not, but luckily I have a copy of the first one so I can maybe find out then.

I was hoping to find good notes for what the actual SMB3 run is like but haven't had any luck so far. I did find one thing on gamefaqs explaining how they manage to keep their super speed thing even after it seems like they should have lost it by the physics rules that I remember from the game.

And I get to try out my SNES S-video cable. Woo!

Wednesday, January 07, 2015

Perspective

One of the indie games they ran at AGDQ was a game called Perspective. I was asleep during it, but my sister watched it, and told me I needed to check it out. The game, not the speedrun. I did so, and while the game is very short it used a pretty neat mechanic and was quite fun.

The game is free and I'm pretty sure anyone who liked Portal or Antichamber has a pretty high chance of liking this one too. So go check it out!

Tuesday, January 06, 2015

Binding of Isaac Starting Items

There seems to be two different ways that people speedrun The Binding of Isaac: Rebirth. The first is to run a race where you need to beat the boss in the chest with Isaac. The second is where you beat the game sequentially with a set of the characters. All the ones from the original game, or all the ones from this game, or all the ones from this game excluding the crazy challenge character. I've watched a fair number of both kinds of runs and one thing they have in common is the player will check out the treasure in the first item room and reset if it isn't very good.

I've just been playing with all the items and I find I can win most of the time, but sometimes it is definitely very slow going. It certainly makes sense to invest some time at the start of the run into getting a high damage item. But what are the high damage items? I decided to take a look at the list of items in the item room pool and see which ones look like they'd be good to start with. Next time I play I'm going to try resetting until I get one of them and try to get a feel for how long it takes. I also need to make sure I've unlocked all the really good ones! If not then I should make getting them a high priority.

The way I see it, 35 of the 220 possible item room items are really good. There are also 4 items in the curse room that are super good (ceremonial robes, the mark, the pact, and pentagram) and it seems like it's worth starting with any item room item if you get one of those. Anyway, the 35 items that I want to try starting with are: 20/20, blood of the martyr, capricorn, chemical peel, chocolate milk, cricket's head, dark bum, death's touch, dr fetus, epic fetus, ipecac, iron bar, judas' shadow, lil' brimstone, magic mushroom, the mind, mom's knife, money = power, monstro's lung, mutant spider, number one, odd mushroom (large), phd, pisces, polyphemus, proptosis, pyromaniac, rotten baby, smb super fan, stigmata, tech.5, halo, inner eye, ludovic technique, and sad onion.

I actually have all but 3 of those items already. I need to beat the boss rush with Judas (should be doable), I need to kill Satan with The Lost (I don't even have The Lost unlocked and it would be super hard regardless), and I need to kill Mom's foot with the activated ability of The Bible. I should be able to do that last one by just keeping my eye out for The Bible to show up in a store. While playing Judas!

Monday, January 05, 2015

Awesome Games Done Quick 2015

Yesterday marked the start of this year's AGDQ. For those who may not know what that means it's a week long video game marathon where people who are supreme experts at specific games beat them as fast as possible. Typically this will involve abusing bugs to move faster, or to move through walls, or to skip entire sections of games.

I've spent a fair amount of time in the past year watching speedrunning streams. Most of the time people who are streaming are trying to beat their personal best times. So if they get off to a slow start they'll just reset the game and try again. This marathon is more about being entertaining than setting new records so that aspect of speedrunning is missing. And frankly that's a good thing in general. It means the organizers are only picking games to be played by people who can consistently be pretty fast. This makes it more accessible to a casual viewer I think. They also bring in extra people to talk about what's going on in the games. So even if the guy playing the game needs to focus on a hard trick there's someone else there to explain it to the layman viewer. This is good for me since I don't know most of these games! I don't think I'd like watching a regular Sonic record attempt stream, but I was happy to watch a few different Sonic games at AGDQ with the focus on entertainment and commentary.

The purpose for the event is to raise money for the Prevent Cancer Foundation. Last year they raised a little over a million dollars during AGDQ and I suspect they'll handily beat that total this year. Viewership is certainly up! They had more people watching the stream a few hours after it went live than they did at any point last year.

They have tons of prizes and stuff they raffle off to people who donate during specific sections of the event. The grand prize this year is actually a pinball machine donated by Pinball Joe, whoever that is! There's also a Humble Bundle set up explicitly for this event with the money going to the same charity. A bunch of games, a shirt and other stuff, and a 3 month subscription of xSplit which is one of the two big streaming software suites that I know of. If you want to use xSplit this seems like it really should be the way to get it. I use OBS which is open source, free, and seems to work just fine but I've hears xSplit works just fine too.

You can watch the action on their Twitch channel.

Sunday, January 04, 2015

Bridge Match 3 - Board 47

Board 47 - Dealer South - NS Vul

Opponents convention card: Dutch Doubleton
Opponents playing strength: Good

My hand: A J T 8 5 3 9 3 J T 8 3 2

East opens 1 heart in 4th seat. I once again have a RAPTOR hand but I don't think Jack knows what that is. So I pass. The end up in 4 hearts.

I lead the T of clubs.
WEST
K 6 5 2
T 7 6
J T 8 7
K Q
SOUTH
A J T 8
5 3
9 3
J T 8 3 2
WestNorthEastSouth
Pass
PassPass1Pass
3Pass4Pass
PassPass

T-Q-4-A. East decides to draw one round of trump and then leads a spade. 3-8-K-9. He fires back another spade which partner wins with the Q. Unless I want to overtake and lead instead? I think I do want that. Partner may be able to ruff a spade here. Well, by ruff I mean pitch since my spade is high. I try to give partner another pitch but he ruffs my high spade with the 2 of hearts. East doesn't overruff for some reason. Partner then cashes the A of diamonds and punches through the Q to East's K. East is then up. Down 1.
NORTH
Q 9
9 8 2
A Q 4 2
9 7 6 4
WEST
K 6 5 2
T 7 6
J T 8 7
K Q
EAST
7 4 3
A K Q J 4
K 6 5
A 5
SOUTH
A J T 8
5 3
9 3
J T 8 3 2
They have 10 easy tricks so it isn't surprising that 6 tables made 4 hearts. The last table went down 2 in 4 hearts. Our declarer threw away a trick by failing to overruff. What happened at that table? Anyway, we get 12 MPs. Woo!


Captain Jack agrees with me all the way!

Ranking after board 47/60: 10/16 with 48.94%

Friday, January 02, 2015

Bridge Match 3 - Board 46

Board 46 - Dealer East - None Vul

Opponents convention card: Dutch Doubleton
Opponents playing strength: Good

My hand: T 9 7 6 Q T Q J 9 7 4 T 8

East opens 1 heart and I'm not going to get involved this time around. West jumps to 3 diamonds as a Bergen raise. Partner tries to eat up some bidding room with a 4 diamond bid. East bids 4 spades as a cuebid showing a control in spades for hearts. Well... The opponents are well on their way to slam. And I happen to have QJxxx of a suit partner was willing to bid at the 4 level on his own. I'm definitely bidding here. The question is, what? We have at least 10 diamonds between us, and I'd say 11 is pretty likely. So the opponents have at most 1 diamond loser. I have QT tight of their trump suit, so they're not going to lose anything there. East claims to have spades covered. West has to have 10-12 points over there so he probably has clubs locked up. I'd say they're almost certainly making 6 hearts, which is worth 980 points. Down 4 doubled will only be 800 points, so that's where I want to be. I'd say we're probably taking 8 tricks? Partner's 6 trump and then 2 ruffs in my hand? It's entirely possible partner only has 5 trump, or that we can't find cards to ruff. It's also possible we find extra cards to ruff. At any rate, if we take 8 tricks and want to go down 4 then 6 diamonds is actually the place to be. Do we really only have 5 losers? If partner has a stiff spade, yes. We're probably losing 2 hearts, 2 clubs, and all the spades in partner's hand. Him having a singleton is possible, but I don't think I'm willing to bank everything on it. So I'll make the safe bid of 5 diamonds. West bids 5 hearts, partner bids 6 diamonds, East bids 6 hearts and everyone passes. (In retrospect... Maybe if partner is willing to go to 6 diamonds I should bump it to 7?)

I'm on lead. I can actually imagine a lot of situations where they have 13 tricks if we don't cash our diamond. I could bet everything on partner having a spade void but if that was my plan I should have just bid 7 diamonds. So I lead the Q of diamonds.
WEST
A J 3
9 7 5 4 3
A
9 7 6 5
SOUTH
T 9 7 6
Q T
Q J 9 7 4
T 8
WestNorthEastSouth
1Pass
314425
566Pass
PassPass
1Bergen (invitational, 4+ hearts)
2Control in spades for hearts

Q-A-8-3 of clubs. Whoa. Partner has SEVEN! And not the ace. We were getting murdered in 6 diamonds doubled! Declarer then draws trump. 3-3 of diamonds-A-T. Ok. Partner has a void, and it's in hearts. So maybe we weren't so murdered after all. 2 club losers, a diamond, and as many spades as partner has. Ok, that's still only down 4 when he has a singleton. And a 1-0-7-5 distribution feels pretty unlikely.

The play from that point is pretty straightforward. I have no decisions at all to make. But it turns out partner scores both the A and Q of clubs! So they're actual down 1! Huzzah! Even better, there are lines of play that actually let them make the contract (finesse with the J of clubs) so this may be a good score.
NORTH
Q 8 5

K T 8 6 5 3 2
A Q 4
WEST
A J 3
9 7 5 4 3
A
9 7 6 5
EAST
K 4 2
A K J 8 6 2

K J 3 2
SOUTH
T 9 7 6
Q T
Q J 9 7 4
T 8
3 people went down in 6 hearts, with one table going down 2 somehow. Other results were someone making 4 hearts up 1, someone making 5 hearts doubled, someone making 6 hearts, and someone making 6 hearts doubled. Ouch! This is worth a whopping 11 MPs for my team which is a welcome break from our run of terrible scores.


Jack disagrees with my diamond bid, because 'Jack expects a disaster after 5 diamonds.' I think Jack needs to read up on the Law of Total Tricks! He then disagrees with my opening lead because he doesn't understand Rusinow leads. He wants me to lead the J from QJ. Which would be right in a normal suit, but when leading partner's bid suit that convention is off. (Because of the number of times you want to lead the suit from Qxx or Jx or whatever.)

Ranking after board 46/60: 10/16 with 48.14%