Fouling Power!

The Blood Bowl league I'm playing in on FumBBL just hit the halfway point of the season. 7 games down, 7 games to go. I started the team from scratch before this season and got to play 3 training games against other new teams before getting thrust into real games against teams who could have entered at the 1750 TW mark. I had an average preseason getting 1 win, 2 draws, and 1 loss. That was good for 14th place of 32 teams. It also gave me a few skills and he money to buy my second bull centaur which was really important.

Heading into the start of the regular season I had 8 skills. 3 of those 8 skills were dirty player. My assertion was that most established teams were going to be running light on players after having to cut down to the salary cap before the preseason and I could use inducement money on bribes to try to get a man advantage. Also I can't see any other skill for a hobgoblin. They suck. I don't want them in contact with the enemy. I don't want them carrying the ball. I think my absolute first skill was guard on a hobgoblin, which made me sad, but having a slightly more mobile source of guard hasn't been bad.

Through 7 games I have 6 wins and a draw which is tops in my division and the league as a whole. I've been very lucky as far as injuries go with not a single death or permanent injury across the whole team through the 14 games thus far. I've had one death in several games this season but the apothecary has always worked on them. That's kept my team from falling down, and has helped win games I'm sure, but the big thing has been fouls. Foul early, foul often. My team is #2 in casualties inflicted with 32 in 7 games. But if I look at the casualties I've actually earned SPP for the number is only 19. Which means the other 13 have been fouls! Almost 2 players removed per game, every game, thanks to fouls. I've taken the foul action 46 times which is by far the most in the league. One of my players, Monsieur Brunette, has 20 on his own. That's more than every team in the league save 2.

Have I been getting lucky here too? Well, I crunched some numbers on fouling a while ago and I'm going to assume I didn't make mistakes in those odds. I try to gang foul when I can, but my guys move slow. I'm going to assume I've been mostly aiming needing a 6+ to pierce armour. (3 assists against someone with 8 AV.) In that case, with a dirty player foul I expect a casualty 22% of the time and to get kicked out 29% of the time. With a regular dude foul I expect a casualty 12% of the time and to get kicked out 27% of the time.

13 casualties in 46 tries is a 28% success rate. That's definitely higher than it should be. I have played against goblins and niggled players which helps a little but it feels like I can't expect that to keep going. On the other hand on 19 fouls I expect to get kicked out 6 or fewer times 70% of the time. So only getting 20 fouls in over those 7 games (this is assuming the last foul is an ejection in the last game) isn't lucky for Monsieur Brunetter. Especially considering I've had bribes for several of those games. On the other hand he does get punched some of the time. Just going from raw numbers it's hard to tell but it doesn't feel like I've been getting lucky on staying in the game. I also don't have KO numbers so I don't know if I've been overall lucky in removing players from the pitch with fouls. Definitely lucky in terms of doing damage as I've done about 3 more casualties than I should have assuming I have been needing the 6+ with dirty player every time.

Another area I've been getting lucky is MVP distribution. I got a bunch of early hobgoblin MVPs to get those dirty players but since the season has started I've gotten one hobgoblin level total. It was on the guard player, who now has block. All of my dwarves have guard now which is very nice. None of them have claw, which makes me sad, but hopefully it will come soon. I have two elf games to start the second half of the season before I get into the heavily armoured teams again and could really use claw by then.

My team is #3 in SPP earned, and has to be #1 in fewest SPP lost given that I've suffered no injuries, but I'm still lower in TV than 5 of the 7 teams I'm going to be playing in the second half of the season. So I should get to continue to implement the bribe plan and keep on fouling all day long. I decided to skip the minotaur thus far because I'm worried about his 8 armour and wild animal screwing things up. But if I end up at a sweet spot in inducements I may pick one up for a game to see what happens. I have 380k in the bank and will have to burn it before next season anyway! Or maybe I should just save it to throw extra cash in for bribes during important games? Hmm...