tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20397621.post619297078193419776..comments2023-09-21T05:26:30.376-04:00Comments on Ziggyny's Game Emporium: Hearthstone DraftingZiggynyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07518980519046202646noreply@blogger.comBlogger3125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20397621.post-35456603916753491782015-01-14T13:41:23.279-05:002015-01-14T13:41:23.279-05:00I haven't played since before the last expansi...I haven't played since before the last expansion, so the meta may have changed.<br /><br />My experience has been that the average opponents are pretty easy in the 0-3 win bracket (I get really grumpy when I hit monster decks in that area), then the decks tighten up a fair bit in the 4-5 win area.<br /><br />At 6 wins I experienced a real hump, and I would often stall there or at 7 wins.<br /><br />I think the general thing is the matching algorithm tries to match you against similar win rates. So at 0 wins you play vs people who haven't won a match yet. Up around 6 wins people tend to be running out of losses and dropping out. So you're usually playing someone good enough to hit 6+ wins, with a strong possibility of facing a monster deck that deserves 9+ wins.<br /><br />I'd say up at the 7+ range you're probably looking at close to 50/50 odds unless you're seriously pro-level.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10447448752354215235noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20397621.post-23031772080023999232015-01-13T11:26:37.879-05:002015-01-13T11:26:37.879-05:00I've watched Trump, Hafu and Massan do a lot o...I've watched Trump, Hafu and Massan do a lot of arenas, and 8-3 would be a pretty bad finish for them, so I'm convinced that playskill actually makes up a big component of success in limited.<br /><br />When Trump drafts after making his deck he'll switch his stream name to his prediction for how many wins he thinks he'll get. The lowest prediction I've ever seen from him is 10, and his predictions seem pretty good (again, very small sample size). <br /><br />When I was doing some arenas, the biggest thing that helped me was reading Massan's arena guide and trying to follow his mana curve suggestion. I didn't worry so much about his card rankings, just tried to get the mana curve right and I started winning a lot more (small sample size). But basically even though I think Hearthstone is pretty easy (Trump can't count and he wins at it) I'm still not very good at it. I have a tendency to do things like fill out my board against a mage on turn six and whatnot.<br /><br />I think it is a plain fact that you could be averaging 10 wins per arena and never having to stop to do quests if you put some practice in. Also, if you started streaming that you could get 10,000 viewers (though you might have to work on being a jerk to achieve that)!Sthennohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05429676469805661834noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20397621.post-10608091163212632992015-01-12T21:40:36.505-05:002015-01-12T21:40:36.505-05:00I think you must be doing better than 45/2/2. 45% ...I think you must be doing better than 45/2/2. 45% wins would only give you a 1/400 chance of getting 12 wins. Last month you posted about getting a good draft and winning the max 12 wins.David Nicholsonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04898167549516763505noreply@blogger.com